Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010.
BACKGROUND:Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) recurrently strike the African Meningitis Belt. This study aimed at investigating factors, still poorly understood, that influence annual incidence of MM serogroup A, the main etiologic agent over 2004-2010, at a fine spatial scale in Niger. METH...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2fe027e90ba1429486997358147f95bf 2023-05-15T15:14:42+02:00 Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010. Juliette Paireau Halima B Maïnassara Jean-François Jusot Jean-Marc Collard Issa Idi Jean-Paul Moulia-Pelat Judith E Mueller Arnaud Fontanet 2014-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002899 https://doaj.org/article/2fe027e90ba1429486997358147f95bf EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4031065?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002899 https://doaj.org/article/2fe027e90ba1429486997358147f95bf PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 5, p e2899 (2014) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002899 2022-12-31T11:44:55Z BACKGROUND:Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) recurrently strike the African Meningitis Belt. This study aimed at investigating factors, still poorly understood, that influence annual incidence of MM serogroup A, the main etiologic agent over 2004-2010, at a fine spatial scale in Niger. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:To take into account data dependencies over space and time and control for unobserved confounding factors, we developed an explanatory Bayesian hierarchical model over 2004-2010 at the health centre catchment area (HCCA) level. The multivariate model revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors were important for explaining spatio-temporal variations in incidence: mean relative humidity during November-June over the study region (posterior mean Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0.656, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 0.405-0.949) and occurrence of early rains in March in a HCCA (IRR = 0.353, 95% CI 0.239-0.502) were protective factors; a higher risk was associated with the percentage of neighbouring HCCAs having at least one MM A case during the same year (IRR = 2.365, 95% CI 2.078-2.695), the presence of a road crossing the HCCA (IRR = 1.743, 95% CI 1.173-2.474) and the occurrence of cases before 31 December in a HCCA (IRR = 6.801, 95% CI 4.004-10.910). At the study region level, higher annual incidence correlated with greater geographic spread and, to a lesser extent, with higher intensity of localized outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS:Based on these findings, we hypothesize that spatio-temporal variability of MM A incidence between years and HCCAs result from variations in the intensity or duration of the dry season climatic effects on disease risk, and is further impacted by factors of spatial contacts, representing facilitated pathogen transmission. Additional unexplained factors may contribute to the observed incidence patterns and should be further investigated. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 8 5 e2899 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Juliette Paireau Halima B Maïnassara Jean-François Jusot Jean-Marc Collard Issa Idi Jean-Paul Moulia-Pelat Judith E Mueller Arnaud Fontanet Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND:Epidemics of meningococcal meningitis (MM) recurrently strike the African Meningitis Belt. This study aimed at investigating factors, still poorly understood, that influence annual incidence of MM serogroup A, the main etiologic agent over 2004-2010, at a fine spatial scale in Niger. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:To take into account data dependencies over space and time and control for unobserved confounding factors, we developed an explanatory Bayesian hierarchical model over 2004-2010 at the health centre catchment area (HCCA) level. The multivariate model revealed that both climatic and non-climatic factors were important for explaining spatio-temporal variations in incidence: mean relative humidity during November-June over the study region (posterior mean Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR) = 0.656, 95% Credible Interval (CI) 0.405-0.949) and occurrence of early rains in March in a HCCA (IRR = 0.353, 95% CI 0.239-0.502) were protective factors; a higher risk was associated with the percentage of neighbouring HCCAs having at least one MM A case during the same year (IRR = 2.365, 95% CI 2.078-2.695), the presence of a road crossing the HCCA (IRR = 1.743, 95% CI 1.173-2.474) and the occurrence of cases before 31 December in a HCCA (IRR = 6.801, 95% CI 4.004-10.910). At the study region level, higher annual incidence correlated with greater geographic spread and, to a lesser extent, with higher intensity of localized outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS:Based on these findings, we hypothesize that spatio-temporal variability of MM A incidence between years and HCCAs result from variations in the intensity or duration of the dry season climatic effects on disease risk, and is further impacted by factors of spatial contacts, representing facilitated pathogen transmission. Additional unexplained factors may contribute to the observed incidence patterns and should be further investigated. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Juliette Paireau Halima B Maïnassara Jean-François Jusot Jean-Marc Collard Issa Idi Jean-Paul Moulia-Pelat Judith E Mueller Arnaud Fontanet |
author_facet |
Juliette Paireau Halima B Maïnassara Jean-François Jusot Jean-Marc Collard Issa Idi Jean-Paul Moulia-Pelat Judith E Mueller Arnaud Fontanet |
author_sort |
Juliette Paireau |
title |
Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010. |
title_short |
Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010. |
title_full |
Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010. |
title_fullStr |
Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in Niger, 2004-2010. |
title_sort |
spatio-temporal factors associated with meningococcal meningitis annual incidence at the health centre level in niger, 2004-2010. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002899 https://doaj.org/article/2fe027e90ba1429486997358147f95bf |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 5, p e2899 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4031065?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002899 https://doaj.org/article/2fe027e90ba1429486997358147f95bf |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002899 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
8 |
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5 |
container_start_page |
e2899 |
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1766345132225855488 |