Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios.
Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemi...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb 2023-05-15T15:16:09+02:00 Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios. David Moo-Llanes Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal Camila González Janine M Ramsey 2013-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421 https://doaj.org/article/2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24069478/pdf/?tool=EBI https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421 https://doaj.org/article/2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 9, p e2421 (2013) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421 2022-12-31T05:46:39Z Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canada PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 7 9 e2421 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 David Moo-Llanes Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal Camila González Janine M Ramsey Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Ecological niche models are useful tools to infer potential spatial and temporal distributions in vector species and to measure epidemiological risk for infectious diseases such as the Leishmaniases. The ecological niche of 28 North and Central American sand fly species, including those with epidemiological relevance, can be used to analyze the vector's ecology and its association with transmission risk, and plan integrated regional vector surveillance and control programs. In this study, we model the environmental requirements of the principal North and Central American phlebotomine species and analyze three niche characteristics over future climate change scenarios: i) potential change in niche breadth, ii) direction and magnitude of niche centroid shifts, iii) shifts in elevation range. Niche identity between confirmed or incriminated Leishmania vector sand flies in Mexico, and human cases were analyzed. Niche models were constructed using sand fly occurrence datapoints from Canada, USA, Mexico, Guatemala and Belize. Nine non-correlated bioclimatic and four topographic data layers were used as niche components using GARP in OpenModeller. Both B2 and A2 climate change scenarios were used with two general circulation models for each scenario (CSIRO and HadCM3), for 2020, 2050 and 2080. There was an increase in niche breadth to 2080 in both scenarios for all species with the exception of Lutzomyia vexator. The principal direction of niche centroid displacement was to the northwest (64%), while the elevation range decreased greatest for tropical, and least for broad-range species. Lutzomyia cruciata is the only epidemiologically important species with high niche identity with that of Leishmania spp. in Mexico. Continued landscape modification in future climate change will provide an increased opportunity for the geographic expansion of NCA sand flys' ENM and human exposure to vectors of Leishmaniases. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
David Moo-Llanes Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal Camila González Janine M Ramsey |
author_facet |
David Moo-Llanes Carlos N Ibarra-Cerdeña Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez Sergio Ibáñez-Bernal Camila González Janine M Ramsey |
author_sort |
David Moo-Llanes |
title |
Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios. |
title_short |
Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios. |
title_full |
Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios. |
title_fullStr |
Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Current and future niche of North and Central American sand flies (Diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios. |
title_sort |
current and future niche of north and central american sand flies (diptera: psychodidae) in climate change scenarios. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421 https://doaj.org/article/2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 7, Iss 9, p e2421 (2013) |
op_relation |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/24069478/pdf/?tool=EBI https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421 https://doaj.org/article/2f0b4da4fdb5454ba8503da2a00ac4bb |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002421 |
container_title |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
7 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
e2421 |
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1766346446782595072 |