Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models
A better understanding of expected future cyclonic activity, especially in winter in the Mediterranean basin, is essential in developing scientifically based adaptation and mitigation methods to study extreme precipitation and wind anomalies. The aim of this study was to analyze the changes in winte...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2e3ba08783ca4b6bb9bb7f18665e8f66 2023-05-15T17:32:06+02:00 Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models Elena N. Voskresenskaya Veronika N. Maslova Andrey S. Lubkov Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy 2022-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101573 https://doaj.org/article/2e3ba08783ca4b6bb9bb7f18665e8f66 EN eng MDPI AG https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/10/1573 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13101573 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/2e3ba08783ca4b6bb9bb7f18665e8f66 Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 1573, p 1573 (2022) storm tracks track density cyclogenesis areas climate variability and change the North Atlantic Oscillation the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101573 2022-12-30T19:41:29Z A better understanding of expected future cyclonic activity, especially in winter in the Mediterranean basin, is essential in developing scientifically based adaptation and mitigation methods to study extreme precipitation and wind anomalies. The aim of this study was to analyze the changes in winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea region, as part of the North Atlantic–European sector, at three 15 year periods: the beginning, middle, and end of the 21st century. Our projections were based on an ensemble of seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phase 6, models, which showed the best agreement with NCEP/NCAR and ERA5 reanalyses under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 and highest-emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed a consistent increase in the frequency of cyclones over Central Europe and the British Isles, which was associated with shifts in cyclone tracks: northward from the western Mediterranean region and southward from the Icelandic Low region. The latter shift led to a decrease in the frequency in the northern Atlantic–European region. At the same time, there was a reduction in the frequency of cyclones over the eastern region of the Mediterranean Sea, consistent with the decrease in cyclogenesis events. Area-averaged cyclone numbers in the western and eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea subregions reduced at the end of the century under the highest-emission scenario, but not constantly. There was a rise in the middle of the 21st century under both scenarios, which may be linked to long-term multidecadal variability or regional features. In general, our study showed that the future winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea region will respond unevenly to global climate changes, due to regional and monthly features and long-term quasiperiodic variability. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmosphere 13 10 1573 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
storm tracks track density cyclogenesis areas climate variability and change the North Atlantic Oscillation the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
storm tracks track density cyclogenesis areas climate variability and change the North Atlantic Oscillation the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Elena N. Voskresenskaya Veronika N. Maslova Andrey S. Lubkov Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models |
topic_facet |
storm tracks track density cyclogenesis areas climate variability and change the North Atlantic Oscillation the East Atlantic/West Russia pattern Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
A better understanding of expected future cyclonic activity, especially in winter in the Mediterranean basin, is essential in developing scientifically based adaptation and mitigation methods to study extreme precipitation and wind anomalies. The aim of this study was to analyze the changes in winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea region, as part of the North Atlantic–European sector, at three 15 year periods: the beginning, middle, and end of the 21st century. Our projections were based on an ensemble of seven Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP), phase 6, models, which showed the best agreement with NCEP/NCAR and ERA5 reanalyses under the intermediate SSP2-4.5 and highest-emission SSP5-8.5 scenarios. The results showed a consistent increase in the frequency of cyclones over Central Europe and the British Isles, which was associated with shifts in cyclone tracks: northward from the western Mediterranean region and southward from the Icelandic Low region. The latter shift led to a decrease in the frequency in the northern Atlantic–European region. At the same time, there was a reduction in the frequency of cyclones over the eastern region of the Mediterranean Sea, consistent with the decrease in cyclogenesis events. Area-averaged cyclone numbers in the western and eastern Mediterranean and Black Sea subregions reduced at the end of the century under the highest-emission scenario, but not constantly. There was a rise in the middle of the 21st century under both scenarios, which may be linked to long-term multidecadal variability or regional features. In general, our study showed that the future winter cyclonic activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea region will respond unevenly to global climate changes, due to regional and monthly features and long-term quasiperiodic variability. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Elena N. Voskresenskaya Veronika N. Maslova Andrey S. Lubkov Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy |
author_facet |
Elena N. Voskresenskaya Veronika N. Maslova Andrey S. Lubkov Viktor Y. Zhuravskiy |
author_sort |
Elena N. Voskresenskaya |
title |
Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models |
title_short |
Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models |
title_full |
Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models |
title_fullStr |
Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Present and Future Changes in Winter Cyclonic Activity in the Mediterranean–Black Sea Region in the 21st Century Based on an Ensemble of CMIP6 Models |
title_sort |
present and future changes in winter cyclonic activity in the mediterranean–black sea region in the 21st century based on an ensemble of cmip6 models |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101573 https://doaj.org/article/2e3ba08783ca4b6bb9bb7f18665e8f66 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmosphere, Vol 13, Iss 1573, p 1573 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://www.mdpi.com/2073-4433/13/10/1573 https://doaj.org/toc/2073-4433 doi:10.3390/atmos13101573 2073-4433 https://doaj.org/article/2e3ba08783ca4b6bb9bb7f18665e8f66 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos13101573 |
container_title |
Atmosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
1573 |
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1766130047578537984 |