Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control.
Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa. Despite the effectiveness of livestock vaccines in controlling anthrax, underreporting, logistics, and limited resources makes implementing vaccination campaigns difficult. To better understand the geographic limits of anthrax, elucidate environmental factors...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2db8ccdda6484c578fe3142a26ebd302 2023-05-15T15:13:31+02:00 Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control. Ian T Kracalik Ernest Kenu Evans Nsoh Ayamdooh Emmanuel Allegye-Cudjoe Paul Nokuma Polkuu Joseph Asamoah Frimpong Kofi Mensah Nyarko William A Bower Rita Traxler Jason K Blackburn 2017-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005885 https://doaj.org/article/2db8ccdda6484c578fe3142a26ebd302 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5656412?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005885 https://doaj.org/article/2db8ccdda6484c578fe3142a26ebd302 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 10, p e0005885 (2017) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005885 2022-12-31T13:30:15Z Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa. Despite the effectiveness of livestock vaccines in controlling anthrax, underreporting, logistics, and limited resources makes implementing vaccination campaigns difficult. To better understand the geographic limits of anthrax, elucidate environmental factors related to its occurrence, and identify human and livestock populations at risk, we developed predictive models of the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana. We obtained data on the location and date of livestock anthrax from veterinary and outbreak response records in Ghana during 2005-2016, as well as livestock vaccination registers and population estimates of characteristically high-risk groups. To predict the environmental suitability of anthrax, we used an ensemble of random forest (RF) models built using a combination of climatic and environmental factors. From 2005 through the first six months of 2016, there were 67 anthrax outbreaks (851 cases) in livestock; outbreaks showed a seasonal peak during February through April and primarily involved cattle. There was a median of 19,709 vaccine doses [range: 0-175 thousand] administered annually. Results from the RF model suggest a marked ecological divide separating the broad areas of environmental suitability in northern Ghana from the southern part of the country. Increasing alkaline soil pH was associated with a higher probability of anthrax occurrence. We estimated 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5) million livestock and 805 (95% CI: 519, 890) thousand low income rural livestock keepers were located in anthrax risk areas. Based on our estimates, the current anthrax vaccination efforts in Ghana cover a fraction of the livestock potentially at risk, thus control efforts should be focused on improving vaccine coverage among high risk groups. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 10 e0005885 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Ian T Kracalik Ernest Kenu Evans Nsoh Ayamdooh Emmanuel Allegye-Cudjoe Paul Nokuma Polkuu Joseph Asamoah Frimpong Kofi Mensah Nyarko William A Bower Rita Traxler Jason K Blackburn Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Anthrax is hyper-endemic in West Africa. Despite the effectiveness of livestock vaccines in controlling anthrax, underreporting, logistics, and limited resources makes implementing vaccination campaigns difficult. To better understand the geographic limits of anthrax, elucidate environmental factors related to its occurrence, and identify human and livestock populations at risk, we developed predictive models of the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana. We obtained data on the location and date of livestock anthrax from veterinary and outbreak response records in Ghana during 2005-2016, as well as livestock vaccination registers and population estimates of characteristically high-risk groups. To predict the environmental suitability of anthrax, we used an ensemble of random forest (RF) models built using a combination of climatic and environmental factors. From 2005 through the first six months of 2016, there were 67 anthrax outbreaks (851 cases) in livestock; outbreaks showed a seasonal peak during February through April and primarily involved cattle. There was a median of 19,709 vaccine doses [range: 0-175 thousand] administered annually. Results from the RF model suggest a marked ecological divide separating the broad areas of environmental suitability in northern Ghana from the southern part of the country. Increasing alkaline soil pH was associated with a higher probability of anthrax occurrence. We estimated 2.2 (95% CI: 2.0, 2.5) million livestock and 805 (95% CI: 519, 890) thousand low income rural livestock keepers were located in anthrax risk areas. Based on our estimates, the current anthrax vaccination efforts in Ghana cover a fraction of the livestock potentially at risk, thus control efforts should be focused on improving vaccine coverage among high risk groups. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ian T Kracalik Ernest Kenu Evans Nsoh Ayamdooh Emmanuel Allegye-Cudjoe Paul Nokuma Polkuu Joseph Asamoah Frimpong Kofi Mensah Nyarko William A Bower Rita Traxler Jason K Blackburn |
author_facet |
Ian T Kracalik Ernest Kenu Evans Nsoh Ayamdooh Emmanuel Allegye-Cudjoe Paul Nokuma Polkuu Joseph Asamoah Frimpong Kofi Mensah Nyarko William A Bower Rita Traxler Jason K Blackburn |
author_sort |
Ian T Kracalik |
title |
Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control. |
title_short |
Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control. |
title_full |
Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control. |
title_fullStr |
Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in Ghana and estimating populations at risk: Implications for vaccination and control. |
title_sort |
modeling the environmental suitability of anthrax in ghana and estimating populations at risk: implications for vaccination and control. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005885 https://doaj.org/article/2db8ccdda6484c578fe3142a26ebd302 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 10, p e0005885 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5656412?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005885 https://doaj.org/article/2db8ccdda6484c578fe3142a26ebd302 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005885 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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11 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
e0005885 |
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1766344073079160832 |