Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation
Climate warming is intensifying the global water cycle, including the rate of fresh water flux between the atmosphere and the surface, determined by precipitation minus evaporation (P−E). Surpluses or deficits of fresh water impact societies and ecosystems, so it is important to monitor and understa...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 https://doaj.org/article/2d81e7a8cb434dc5bd9fcd3a98d0f447 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2d81e7a8cb434dc5bd9fcd3a98d0f447 2023-09-05T13:17:38+02:00 Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation Richard P Allan 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 https://doaj.org/article/2d81e7a8cb434dc5bd9fcd3a98d0f447 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/2d81e7a8cb434dc5bd9fcd3a98d0f447 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 9, p 094004 (2023) climate precipitation water Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 2023-08-13T00:35:44Z Climate warming is intensifying the global water cycle, including the rate of fresh water flux between the atmosphere and the surface, determined by precipitation minus evaporation (P−E). Surpluses or deficits of fresh water impact societies and ecosystems, so it is important to monitor and understand how and why P−E patterns and their seasonal range are changing across the globe. Here, annual maximum and minimum P−E and their changes are diagnosed globally over land and ocean using observation-based datasets and CMIP6 climate model experiments covering 1950–2100. Seasonal minimum P−E is negative across much of the globe, apart from the Arctic, mid-latitude oceans and the tropical warm pool. In the global mean, P−E maximum increases and P−E minimum decreases by around 3%–4% per ^∘ C of global warming from 1995–2014 to 2080–2100 in the ensemble mean of an intermediate greenhouse gas emission scenario. Over land, there is less coherence across the 1960–2020 datasets, but an increase in the seasonal range in P−E emerges in future projections. Patterns of future changes in annual maximum and minimum P−E are qualitatively similar to present day trends with increases in maximum P−E in the equatorial belt and high-latitude regions and decreases in the subtropical subsidence zones. This adds confidence to future projections of a more variable and extreme water cycle but also highlights uncertainties in this response over land. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Global warming Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 18 9 094004 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
climate precipitation water Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
climate precipitation water Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Richard P Allan Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
topic_facet |
climate precipitation water Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Climate warming is intensifying the global water cycle, including the rate of fresh water flux between the atmosphere and the surface, determined by precipitation minus evaporation (P−E). Surpluses or deficits of fresh water impact societies and ecosystems, so it is important to monitor and understand how and why P−E patterns and their seasonal range are changing across the globe. Here, annual maximum and minimum P−E and their changes are diagnosed globally over land and ocean using observation-based datasets and CMIP6 climate model experiments covering 1950–2100. Seasonal minimum P−E is negative across much of the globe, apart from the Arctic, mid-latitude oceans and the tropical warm pool. In the global mean, P−E maximum increases and P−E minimum decreases by around 3%–4% per ^∘ C of global warming from 1995–2014 to 2080–2100 in the ensemble mean of an intermediate greenhouse gas emission scenario. Over land, there is less coherence across the 1960–2020 datasets, but an increase in the seasonal range in P−E emerges in future projections. Patterns of future changes in annual maximum and minimum P−E are qualitatively similar to present day trends with increases in maximum P−E in the equatorial belt and high-latitude regions and decreases in the subtropical subsidence zones. This adds confidence to future projections of a more variable and extreme water cycle but also highlights uncertainties in this response over land. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richard P Allan |
author_facet |
Richard P Allan |
author_sort |
Richard P Allan |
title |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_short |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_full |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_fullStr |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
title_sort |
amplified seasonal range in precipitation minus evaporation |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 https://doaj.org/article/2d81e7a8cb434dc5bd9fcd3a98d0f447 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Global warming |
genre_facet |
Arctic Global warming |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 18, Iss 9, p 094004 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/2d81e7a8cb434dc5bd9fcd3a98d0f447 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/acea36 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
094004 |
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1776198734732853248 |