Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae).
The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) within new continents and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites in northern Italy to...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2d6d54108c2e462ab75dc8bf2e15e319 2023-05-15T15:10:10+02:00 Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). Giorgio Guzzetta Fabrizio Montarsi Frédéric Alexandre Baldacchino Markus Metz Gioia Capelli Annapaola Rizzoli Andrea Pugliese Roberto Rosà Piero Poletti Stefano Merler 2016-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762 https://doaj.org/article/2d6d54108c2e462ab75dc8bf2e15e319 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4909274?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762 https://doaj.org/article/2d6d54108c2e462ab75dc8bf2e15e319 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 6, p e0004762 (2016) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762 2022-12-31T15:54:47Z The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) within new continents and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites in northern Italy to calibrate a population model for Aedes albopictus and estimate the potential of imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue to generate the condition for their autochthonous transmission in the absence of control interventions. The model captured intra-year seasonality and heterogeneity across sites in mosquito abundance, based on local temperature patterns and the estimated site-specific mosquito habitat suitability. A robust negative correlation was found between the latter and local late spring precipitations, indicating a possible washout effect on larval breeding sites. The model predicts a significant risk of chikungunya outbreaks in most sites if a case is imported between the beginning of summer and up to mid-November, with an average outbreak probability between 4.9% and 25%, depending on the site. A lower risk is predicted for dengue, with an average probability between 4.2% and 10.8% for cases imported between mid-July and mid-September. This study shows the importance of an integrated entomological and medical surveillance for the evaluation of arboviral disease risk, which is a precondition for designing cost-effective vector control programs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10 6 e0004762 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Giorgio Guzzetta Fabrizio Montarsi Frédéric Alexandre Baldacchino Markus Metz Gioia Capelli Annapaola Rizzoli Andrea Pugliese Roberto Rosà Piero Poletti Stefano Merler Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
The rapid invasion and spread of Aedes albopictus (Skuse, 1894) within new continents and climatic ranges has created favorable conditions for the emergence of tropical arboviral diseases in the invaded areas. We used mosquito abundance data from 2014 collected across ten sites in northern Italy to calibrate a population model for Aedes albopictus and estimate the potential of imported human cases of chikungunya or dengue to generate the condition for their autochthonous transmission in the absence of control interventions. The model captured intra-year seasonality and heterogeneity across sites in mosquito abundance, based on local temperature patterns and the estimated site-specific mosquito habitat suitability. A robust negative correlation was found between the latter and local late spring precipitations, indicating a possible washout effect on larval breeding sites. The model predicts a significant risk of chikungunya outbreaks in most sites if a case is imported between the beginning of summer and up to mid-November, with an average outbreak probability between 4.9% and 25%, depending on the site. A lower risk is predicted for dengue, with an average probability between 4.2% and 10.8% for cases imported between mid-July and mid-September. This study shows the importance of an integrated entomological and medical surveillance for the evaluation of arboviral disease risk, which is a precondition for designing cost-effective vector control programs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Giorgio Guzzetta Fabrizio Montarsi Frédéric Alexandre Baldacchino Markus Metz Gioia Capelli Annapaola Rizzoli Andrea Pugliese Roberto Rosà Piero Poletti Stefano Merler |
author_facet |
Giorgio Guzzetta Fabrizio Montarsi Frédéric Alexandre Baldacchino Markus Metz Gioia Capelli Annapaola Rizzoli Andrea Pugliese Roberto Rosà Piero Poletti Stefano Merler |
author_sort |
Giorgio Guzzetta |
title |
Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). |
title_short |
Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). |
title_full |
Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). |
title_fullStr |
Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). |
title_full_unstemmed |
Potential Risk of Dengue and Chikungunya Outbreaks in Northern Italy Based on a Population Model of Aedes albopictus (Diptera: Culicidae). |
title_sort |
potential risk of dengue and chikungunya outbreaks in northern italy based on a population model of aedes albopictus (diptera: culicidae). |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762 https://doaj.org/article/2d6d54108c2e462ab75dc8bf2e15e319 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 10, Iss 6, p e0004762 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4909274?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762 https://doaj.org/article/2d6d54108c2e462ab75dc8bf2e15e319 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0004762 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
e0004762 |
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1766341215138086912 |