Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic
Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for i...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2d60bf69216b47799177342fc1d023c8 2023-05-15T16:56:59+02:00 Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic M. Titos B. Martínez Montesinos S. Barsotti L. Sandri A. Folch L. Mingari G. Macedonio A. Costa 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 https://doaj.org/article/2d60bf69216b47799177342fc1d023c8 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/139/2022/nhess-22-139-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://doaj.org/article/2d60bf69216b47799177342fc1d023c8 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 22, Pp 139-163 (2022) Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 2022-12-31T07:35:37Z Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen. Article in Journal/Newspaper Jan Mayen North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Norway Jan Mayen Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22 1 139 163 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 M. Titos B. Martínez Montesinos S. Barsotti L. Sandri A. Folch L. Mingari G. Macedonio A. Costa Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
topic_facet |
Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Geography. Anthropology. Recreation G Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Volcanic eruptions are among the most jeopardizing natural events due to their potential impacts on life, assets, and the environment. In particular, atmospheric dispersal of volcanic tephra and aerosols during explosive eruptions poses a serious threat to life and has significant consequences for infrastructures and global aviation safety. The volcanic island of Jan Mayen, located in the North Atlantic under trans-continental air traffic routes, is considered the northernmost active volcanic area in the world with at least five eruptive periods recorded during the last 200 years. However, quantitative hazard assessments on the possible consequences for the air traffic of a future ash-forming eruption at Jan Mayen are nonexistent. This study presents the first comprehensive long-term volcanic hazard assessment for the volcanic island of Jan Mayen in terms of ash dispersal and concentration at different flight levels. In order to delve into the characterization and modeling of that potential impact, a probabilistic approach based on merging a large number of numerical simulations is adopted, varying the volcano's eruption source parameters (ESPs) and meteorological scenario. Each ESP value is randomly sampled following a continuous probability density function (PDF) based on the Jan Mayen geological record. Over 20 years of meteorological data is considered in order to explore the natural variability associated with weather conditions and is used to run thousands of simulations of the ash dispersal model FALL3D on a 2 km resolution grid. The simulated scenarios are combined to produce probability maps of airborne ash concentration, arrival time, and persistence of unfavorable conditions at flight levels 50 and 250 (FL050 and FL250). The resulting maps can serve as an aid during the development of civil protection strategies, to decision-makers and aviation stakeholders, in assessing and preventing the potential impact of a future ash-rich eruption at Jan Mayen. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. Titos B. Martínez Montesinos S. Barsotti L. Sandri A. Folch L. Mingari G. Macedonio A. Costa |
author_facet |
M. Titos B. Martínez Montesinos S. Barsotti L. Sandri A. Folch L. Mingari G. Macedonio A. Costa |
author_sort |
M. Titos |
title |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_short |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_full |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_fullStr |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at Jan Mayen (Norway) and implications for air traffic in the North Atlantic |
title_sort |
long-term hazard assessment of explosive eruptions at jan mayen (norway) and implications for air traffic in the north atlantic |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 https://doaj.org/article/2d60bf69216b47799177342fc1d023c8 |
geographic |
Norway Jan Mayen |
geographic_facet |
Norway Jan Mayen |
genre |
Jan Mayen North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Jan Mayen North Atlantic |
op_source |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol 22, Pp 139-163 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://nhess.copernicus.org/articles/22/139/2022/nhess-22-139-2022.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1561-8633 https://doaj.org/toc/1684-9981 doi:10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 1561-8633 1684-9981 https://doaj.org/article/2d60bf69216b47799177342fc1d023c8 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-139-2022 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
139 |
op_container_end_page |
163 |
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1766048209130487808 |