Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds
Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat suitability of the boreal forest for many wil...
Published in: | Climate Change Ecology |
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2024
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100079 https://doaj.org/article/2d502e59bdf5417891849c0c00beaa4d |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2d502e59bdf5417891849c0c00beaa4d 2024-09-15T18:26:41+00:00 Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds A. Raymundo T. Micheletti S. Haché D. Stralberg F.E.C. Stewart J.A. Tremblay C. Barros I.M.S. Eddy A.M. Chubaty M. Leblond C.L. Mahon S.L. Van Wilgenburg E.M. Bayne F. Schmiegelow T.D.S. Docherty E.J.B. McIntire S.G. Cumming 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100079 https://doaj.org/article/2d502e59bdf5417891849c0c00beaa4d EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666900523000151 https://doaj.org/toc/2666-9005 2666-9005 doi:10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100079 https://doaj.org/article/2d502e59bdf5417891849c0c00beaa4d Climate Change Ecology, Vol 7, Iss , Pp 100079- (2024) Climate change SpaDES Ecological forecasting Boreal landbirds Species-at-risk Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100079 2024-08-05T17:49:11Z Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat suitability of the boreal forest for many wildlife species. Boreal birds are susceptible to both direct and indirect effects of climate change, and several studies have predicted northward shifts in species distributions as temperatures become warmer. We forecasted spatially-explicit changes in the densities of 72 boreal landbird species using integrated climate change projections and a forest dynamics model in the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories (NT), Canada, over the 2011–2091 horizon. We 1) identified ''winner,'' ''loser,'' and ''bellringer'' species over short (2031) and long-term (2091) forecasts, 2) mapped landbird range and density changes under three contrasting Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and 3) quantify differences in landbird density predictions across a latitudinal gradient. Species that showed a moderate increase or decrease in their predicted abundance were considered ''winners'' and ''losers,'' respectively. Species that showed a marked increase or decrease – a doubling or halving – of their predicted abundance in all three GCMs, were termed ''bellringers''. From 2011–2031, only 2/72 (2.8%) were considered winners, and 3/72 (4.2%) were losers. From 2011–2091, the abundance of more species was predicted to change: 26/72 (36.1%) were winners, and 10/72 species (13.9%) were losers. Four species were considered bellringers: Gray-cheeked Thrush, White-crowned Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, and American Tree Sparrow. Overall, projected range shifts were strongly oriented along a southeast-to-northwest axis. Shifts to the north and south were evenly distributed among all three GCMs. Our results suggest that future climate-mitigated distribution shifts and population declines of boreal landbirds will require targeted conservation actions. They ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Territories taiga Taiga plains Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Climate Change Ecology 7 100079 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change SpaDES Ecological forecasting Boreal landbirds Species-at-risk Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Climate change SpaDES Ecological forecasting Boreal landbirds Species-at-risk Ecology QH540-549.5 A. Raymundo T. Micheletti S. Haché D. Stralberg F.E.C. Stewart J.A. Tremblay C. Barros I.M.S. Eddy A.M. Chubaty M. Leblond C.L. Mahon S.L. Van Wilgenburg E.M. Bayne F. Schmiegelow T.D.S. Docherty E.J.B. McIntire S.G. Cumming Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds |
topic_facet |
Climate change SpaDES Ecological forecasting Boreal landbirds Species-at-risk Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Climate change presents a major threat to biodiversity globally. Northern ecosystems, such as Canada's boreal forest, are predicted to experience particularly severe climate-induced changes. These changes may reduce the carrying capacity and habitat suitability of the boreal forest for many wildlife species. Boreal birds are susceptible to both direct and indirect effects of climate change, and several studies have predicted northward shifts in species distributions as temperatures become warmer. We forecasted spatially-explicit changes in the densities of 72 boreal landbird species using integrated climate change projections and a forest dynamics model in the Taiga Plains ecozone of the Northwest Territories (NT), Canada, over the 2011–2091 horizon. We 1) identified ''winner,'' ''loser,'' and ''bellringer'' species over short (2031) and long-term (2091) forecasts, 2) mapped landbird range and density changes under three contrasting Global Circulation Models (GCMs), and 3) quantify differences in landbird density predictions across a latitudinal gradient. Species that showed a moderate increase or decrease in their predicted abundance were considered ''winners'' and ''losers,'' respectively. Species that showed a marked increase or decrease – a doubling or halving – of their predicted abundance in all three GCMs, were termed ''bellringers''. From 2011–2031, only 2/72 (2.8%) were considered winners, and 3/72 (4.2%) were losers. From 2011–2091, the abundance of more species was predicted to change: 26/72 (36.1%) were winners, and 10/72 species (13.9%) were losers. Four species were considered bellringers: Gray-cheeked Thrush, White-crowned Sparrow, Fox Sparrow, and American Tree Sparrow. Overall, projected range shifts were strongly oriented along a southeast-to-northwest axis. Shifts to the north and south were evenly distributed among all three GCMs. Our results suggest that future climate-mitigated distribution shifts and population declines of boreal landbirds will require targeted conservation actions. They ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Raymundo T. Micheletti S. Haché D. Stralberg F.E.C. Stewart J.A. Tremblay C. Barros I.M.S. Eddy A.M. Chubaty M. Leblond C.L. Mahon S.L. Van Wilgenburg E.M. Bayne F. Schmiegelow T.D.S. Docherty E.J.B. McIntire S.G. Cumming |
author_facet |
A. Raymundo T. Micheletti S. Haché D. Stralberg F.E.C. Stewart J.A. Tremblay C. Barros I.M.S. Eddy A.M. Chubaty M. Leblond C.L. Mahon S.L. Van Wilgenburg E.M. Bayne F. Schmiegelow T.D.S. Docherty E.J.B. McIntire S.G. Cumming |
author_sort |
A. Raymundo |
title |
Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds |
title_short |
Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds |
title_full |
Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds |
title_fullStr |
Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of Northwestern boreal landbirds |
title_sort |
climate-sensitive forecasts of marked short-term and long-term changes in the distributions or abundances of northwestern boreal landbirds |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100079 https://doaj.org/article/2d502e59bdf5417891849c0c00beaa4d |
genre |
Northwest Territories taiga Taiga plains |
genre_facet |
Northwest Territories taiga Taiga plains |
op_source |
Climate Change Ecology, Vol 7, Iss , Pp 100079- (2024) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2666900523000151 https://doaj.org/toc/2666-9005 2666-9005 doi:10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100079 https://doaj.org/article/2d502e59bdf5417891849c0c00beaa4d |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecochg.2023.100079 |
container_title |
Climate Change Ecology |
container_volume |
7 |
container_start_page |
100079 |
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1810467191261233152 |