Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method
As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2d47dfd9f66b4d46ae8deca7f4fb167f 2023-07-30T03:59:16+02:00 Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method Ralf Greve Christopher Chambers Takashi Obase Fuyuki Saito Wing-Le Chan Ayako Abe-Ouchi https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.41 https://doaj.org/article/2d47dfd9f66b4d46ae8deca7f4fb167f EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143023000412/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2023.41 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/2d47dfd9f66b4d46ae8deca7f4fb167f Journal of Glaciology, Pp 1-11 Antarctic glaciology climate change ice and climate ice-sheet modelling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.41 2023-07-16T00:37:33Z As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~ 1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~ 3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~ 0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of post-2100 climate trends on Antarctic mass changes in the 22nd and 23rd centuries. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology West Antarctica Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctica Journal of Glaciology 1 11 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic glaciology climate change ice and climate ice-sheet modelling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic glaciology climate change ice and climate ice-sheet modelling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Ralf Greve Christopher Chambers Takashi Obase Fuyuki Saito Wing-Le Chan Ayako Abe-Ouchi Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method |
topic_facet |
Antarctic glaciology climate change ice and climate ice-sheet modelling Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
As part of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6), the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6) was devised to assess the likely sea-level-rise contribution from the Earth's ice sheets. Here, we construct an ensemble of climate forcings for Antarctica until the year 2300 based on original ISMIP6 forcings until 2100, combined with climate indices from simulations with the MIROC4m climate model until 2300. We then use these forcings to run simulations for the Antarctic ice sheet with the SICOPOLIS model. For the unabated warming pathway RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5, the ice sheet suffers a severe mass loss, amounting to ~ 1.5 m SLE (sea-level equivalent) for the fourteen-experiment mean, and ~ 3.3 m SLE for the most sensitive experiment. Most of this loss originates from West Antarctica. For the reduced emissions pathway RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6, the loss is limited to a three-experiment mean of ~ 0.16 m SLE. The means are approximately two times larger than what was found in a previous study (Chambers and others, 2022, doi:10.1017/jog.2021.124) that assumed a sustained late-21st-century climate beyond 2100, demonstrating the importance of post-2100 climate trends on Antarctic mass changes in the 22nd and 23rd centuries. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ralf Greve Christopher Chambers Takashi Obase Fuyuki Saito Wing-Le Chan Ayako Abe-Ouchi |
author_facet |
Ralf Greve Christopher Chambers Takashi Obase Fuyuki Saito Wing-Le Chan Ayako Abe-Ouchi |
author_sort |
Ralf Greve |
title |
Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method |
title_short |
Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method |
title_full |
Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method |
title_fullStr |
Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future projections for the Antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method |
title_sort |
future projections for the antarctic ice sheet until the year 2300 with a climate-index method |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.41 https://doaj.org/article/2d47dfd9f66b4d46ae8deca7f4fb167f |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctica |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic West Antarctica |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology West Antarctica |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology West Antarctica |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, Pp 1-11 |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143023000412/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2023.41 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/2d47dfd9f66b4d46ae8deca7f4fb167f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2023.41 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
11 |
_version_ |
1772810008386338816 |