Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica
Calving is a complex process subject to several cooperating atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological forcings that vary in space and time, and whose relative effects are challenging to separate. Statistical ‘Systems Analysis’ is commonly used in engineering and economics to extricate complex ‘fo...
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Cambridge University Press
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2ce3ad78999d45cc8274882d8b9851c0 2023-05-15T13:22:08+02:00 Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica M. L. Chester B. Kulessa A. J. Luckman J. N. Bassis P. Kuipers Munneke 2017-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.1 https://doaj.org/article/2ce3ad78999d45cc8274882d8b9851c0 EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305517000015/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0260-3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5644 doi:10.1017/aog.2017.1 0260-3055 1727-5644 https://doaj.org/article/2ce3ad78999d45cc8274882d8b9851c0 Annals of Glaciology, Vol 58, Pp 60-71 (2017) Antarctic glaciology calving glaciological instruments and methods ice engineering ice shelves Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.1 2023-03-12T01:31:57Z Calving is a complex process subject to several cooperating atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological forcings that vary in space and time, and whose relative effects are challenging to separate. Statistical ‘Systems Analysis’ is commonly used in engineering and economics to extricate complex ‘force–response’ relationships. Here we apply Systems Analysis to the Amery rift system, East Antarctica. We develop a scalable ‘System Model’ driven by a coarsely-sampled dataset characteristic of glaciological observations in remote locations, and validate it using rift lengths observed in 2000–06 and 2012. In this initial demonstration, we forecast a detachment date of ~2019 ± 5 years for the large tabular iceberg colloquially known as the ‘Loose Tooth’, for which relative humidity surprisingly emerges as the best statistical predictor. RACMO2 climate modelling reveals that relative humidity correlates best with surface albedo and snowmelt, both of which are intimately linked to firn compaction and ice shelf temperature and flow. We postulate that relative humidity can therefore serve as a proxy for internal stress, a known key control of ‘Loose Tooth’ calving. Although no physical causality is implied in Systems Analysis, postulates such as this can aid in setting priorities in studies of complex glaciological processes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amery Ice Shelf Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic East Antarctica Amery ENVELOPE(-94.063,-94.063,56.565,56.565) Amery Ice Shelf ENVELOPE(71.000,71.000,-69.750,-69.750) Annals of Glaciology 58 74 60 71 |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Antarctic glaciology calving glaciological instruments and methods ice engineering ice shelves Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Antarctic glaciology calving glaciological instruments and methods ice engineering ice shelves Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 M. L. Chester B. Kulessa A. J. Luckman J. N. Bassis P. Kuipers Munneke Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica |
topic_facet |
Antarctic glaciology calving glaciological instruments and methods ice engineering ice shelves Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Calving is a complex process subject to several cooperating atmospheric, oceanographic and glaciological forcings that vary in space and time, and whose relative effects are challenging to separate. Statistical ‘Systems Analysis’ is commonly used in engineering and economics to extricate complex ‘force–response’ relationships. Here we apply Systems Analysis to the Amery rift system, East Antarctica. We develop a scalable ‘System Model’ driven by a coarsely-sampled dataset characteristic of glaciological observations in remote locations, and validate it using rift lengths observed in 2000–06 and 2012. In this initial demonstration, we forecast a detachment date of ~2019 ± 5 years for the large tabular iceberg colloquially known as the ‘Loose Tooth’, for which relative humidity surprisingly emerges as the best statistical predictor. RACMO2 climate modelling reveals that relative humidity correlates best with surface albedo and snowmelt, both of which are intimately linked to firn compaction and ice shelf temperature and flow. We postulate that relative humidity can therefore serve as a proxy for internal stress, a known key control of ‘Loose Tooth’ calving. Although no physical causality is implied in Systems Analysis, postulates such as this can aid in setting priorities in studies of complex glaciological processes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
M. L. Chester B. Kulessa A. J. Luckman J. N. Bassis P. Kuipers Munneke |
author_facet |
M. L. Chester B. Kulessa A. J. Luckman J. N. Bassis P. Kuipers Munneke |
author_sort |
M. L. Chester |
title |
Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica |
title_short |
Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica |
title_full |
Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica |
title_fullStr |
Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica |
title_full_unstemmed |
Systems Analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of Amery Ice Shelf, East Antarctica |
title_sort |
systems analysis of complex glaciological processes and application to calving of amery ice shelf, east antarctica |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.1 https://doaj.org/article/2ce3ad78999d45cc8274882d8b9851c0 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-94.063,-94.063,56.565,56.565) ENVELOPE(71.000,71.000,-69.750,-69.750) |
geographic |
Antarctic East Antarctica Amery Amery Ice Shelf |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic East Antarctica Amery Amery Ice Shelf |
genre |
Amery Ice Shelf Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
genre_facet |
Amery Ice Shelf Annals of Glaciology Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica East Antarctica Ice Shelf Ice Shelves Iceberg* |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology, Vol 58, Pp 60-71 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305517000015/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0260-3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5644 doi:10.1017/aog.2017.1 0260-3055 1727-5644 https://doaj.org/article/2ce3ad78999d45cc8274882d8b9851c0 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2017.1 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_volume |
58 |
container_issue |
74 |
container_start_page |
60 |
op_container_end_page |
71 |
_version_ |
1766363437161512960 |