Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea
Abstract Climate warming is one of the facets of anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in the future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, and colde...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 https://doaj.org/article/2cbc3257fcc74143a7380e19af56ec2b |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2cbc3257fcc74143a7380e19af56ec2b 2024-09-15T17:57:46+00:00 Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca Mark John Costello Marta Coll Alexander Jüterbock Henning Reiss Fabrice Stephenson 2024-07-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 https://doaj.org/article/2cbc3257fcc74143a7380e19af56ec2b EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/2cbc3257fcc74143a7380e19af56ec2b Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2024) Science Q article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 2024-08-05T17:48:59Z Abstract Climate warming is one of the facets of anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in the future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, and colder-water species retracting. However, the future extent and implications of these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint species distribution model to occurrence data of 107, and biomass data of 61 marine fish species from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 and 2022 in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, including the Barents Sea. We project overall increases in richness and declines in relative dominance in the community, and generalised increases in species’ ranges and biomass across three different future scenarios in 2050 and 2100. The projected decline of capelin and the practical extirpation of polar cod from the system, the two most abundant species in the Barents Sea, drove an overall reduction in fish biomass at Arctic latitudes that is not replaced by expanding species. Furthermore, our projections suggest that Arctic demersal fish will be at high risk of extinction by the end of the century if no climate refugia is available at eastern latitudes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic polar cod Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Nature Communications 15 1 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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Science Q |
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Science Q Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca Mark John Costello Marta Coll Alexander Jüterbock Henning Reiss Fabrice Stephenson Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea |
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Science Q |
description |
Abstract Climate warming is one of the facets of anthropogenic global change predicted to increase in the future, its magnitude depending on present-day decisions. The north Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are already undergoing community changes, with warmer-water species expanding northwards, and colder-water species retracting. However, the future extent and implications of these shifts remain unclear. Here, we fitted a joint species distribution model to occurrence data of 107, and biomass data of 61 marine fish species from 16,345 fishery independent trawls sampled between 2004 and 2022 in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, including the Barents Sea. We project overall increases in richness and declines in relative dominance in the community, and generalised increases in species’ ranges and biomass across three different future scenarios in 2050 and 2100. The projected decline of capelin and the practical extirpation of polar cod from the system, the two most abundant species in the Barents Sea, drove an overall reduction in fish biomass at Arctic latitudes that is not replaced by expanding species. Furthermore, our projections suggest that Arctic demersal fish will be at high risk of extinction by the end of the century if no climate refugia is available at eastern latitudes. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca Mark John Costello Marta Coll Alexander Jüterbock Henning Reiss Fabrice Stephenson |
author_facet |
Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca Mark John Costello Marta Coll Alexander Jüterbock Henning Reiss Fabrice Stephenson |
author_sort |
Cesc Gordó-Vilaseca |
title |
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea |
title_short |
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea |
title_full |
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea |
title_fullStr |
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea |
title_full_unstemmed |
Future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the North Sea to the Barents Sea |
title_sort |
future trends of marine fish biomass distributions from the north sea to the barents sea |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 https://doaj.org/article/2cbc3257fcc74143a7380e19af56ec2b |
genre |
Barents Sea North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic polar cod |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic polar cod |
op_source |
Nature Communications, Vol 15, Iss 1, Pp 1-14 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 https://doaj.org/toc/2041-1723 doi:10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 2041-1723 https://doaj.org/article/2cbc3257fcc74143a7380e19af56ec2b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-49911-9 |
container_title |
Nature Communications |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1810433925212798976 |