Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment
‘Super’ Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2c6c7586607446e1af4f384080c2d854 2023-09-05T13:21:26+02:00 Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment T Matthews C Murphy G McCarthy C Broderick R L Wilby 2018-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 https://doaj.org/article/2c6c7586607446e1af4f384080c2d854 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/2c6c7586607446e1af4f384080c2d854 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 1, p 014024 (2018) atmospheric river climate change attribution extratopical cyclones North Atlantic warming Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 2023-08-13T00:37:34Z ‘Super’ Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an atmospheric river (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 13 1 014024 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
atmospheric river climate change attribution extratopical cyclones North Atlantic warming Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
atmospheric river climate change attribution extratopical cyclones North Atlantic warming Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 T Matthews C Murphy G McCarthy C Broderick R L Wilby Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
topic_facet |
atmospheric river climate change attribution extratopical cyclones North Atlantic warming Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
‘Super’ Storm Desmond broke meteorological and hydrological records during a record warm year in the British–Irish Isles (BI). The severity of the storm may be a harbinger of expected changes to regional hydroclimate as global temperatures continue to rise. Here, we adopt a process-based approach to investigate the potency of Desmond, and explore the extent to which climate change may have been a contributory factor. Through an Eulerian assessment of water vapour flux we determine that Desmond was accompanied by an atmospheric river (AR) of severity unprecedented since at least 1979, on account of both high atmospheric humidity and high wind speeds. Lagrangian air-parcel tracking and moisture attribution techniques show that long-term warming of North Atlantic sea surface temperatures has significantly increased the chance of such high humidity in ARs in the vicinity of the BI. We conclude that, given exactly the same dynamical conditions associated with Desmond, the likelihood of such an intense AR has already increased by 25% due to long-term climate change. However, our analysis represents a first-order assessment, and further research is needed into the controls influencing AR dynamics. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T Matthews C Murphy G McCarthy C Broderick R L Wilby |
author_facet |
T Matthews C Murphy G McCarthy C Broderick R L Wilby |
author_sort |
T Matthews |
title |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_short |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_full |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_fullStr |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_full_unstemmed |
Super Storm Desmond: a process-based assessment |
title_sort |
super storm desmond: a process-based assessment |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 https://doaj.org/article/2c6c7586607446e1af4f384080c2d854 |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 13, Iss 1, p 014024 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/2c6c7586607446e1af4f384080c2d854 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa98c8 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014024 |
_version_ |
1776202048527663104 |