Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control.
Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuad...
Published in: | PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Public Library of Science (PLoS)
2019
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 https://doaj.org/article/2c1bd1324b394df7a4c53f942881bead |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2c1bd1324b394df7a4c53f942881bead |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2c1bd1324b394df7a4c53f942881bead 2023-05-15T15:14:30+02:00 Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control. Catherine A Lippi Anna M Stewart-Ibarra M E Franklin Bajaña Loor Jose E Dueñas Zambrano Nelson A Espinoza Lopez Jason K Blackburn Sadie J Ryan 2019-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 https://doaj.org/article/2c1bd1324b394df7a4c53f942881bead EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 https://doaj.org/article/2c1bd1324b394df7a4c53f942881bead PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 4, p e0007322 (2019) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 2022-12-31T11:56:32Z Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 13 4 e0007322 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Catherine A Lippi Anna M Stewart-Ibarra M E Franklin Bajaña Loor Jose E Dueñas Zambrano Nelson A Espinoza Lopez Jason K Blackburn Sadie J Ryan Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Arboviral disease transmission by Aedes mosquitoes poses a major challenge to public health systems in Ecuador, where constraints on health services and resource allocation call for spatially informed management decisions. Employing a unique dataset of larval occurrence records provided by the Ecuadorian Ministry of Health, we used ecological niche models (ENMs) to estimate the current geographic distribution of Aedes aegypti in Ecuador, using mosquito presence as a proxy for risk of disease transmission. ENMs built with the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-Set Production (GARP) algorithm and a suite of environmental variables were assessed for agreement and accuracy. The top model of larval mosquito presence was projected to the year 2050 under various combinations of greenhouse gas emissions scenarios and models of climate change. Under current climatic conditions, larval mosquitoes were not predicted in areas of high elevation in Ecuador, such as the Andes mountain range, as well as the eastern portion of the Amazon basin. However, all models projected to scenarios of future climate change demonstrated potential shifts in mosquito distribution, wherein range contractions were seen throughout most of eastern Ecuador, and areas of transitional elevation became suitable for mosquito presence. Encroachment of Ae. aegypti into mountainous terrain was estimated to affect up to 4,215 km2 under the most extreme scenario of climate change, an area which would put over 12,000 people currently living in transitional areas at risk. This distributional shift into communities at higher elevations indicates an area of concern for public health agencies, as targeted interventions may be needed to protect vulnerable populations with limited prior exposure to mosquito-borne diseases. Ultimately, the results of this study serve as a tool for informing public health policy and mosquito abatement strategies in Ecuador. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Catherine A Lippi Anna M Stewart-Ibarra M E Franklin Bajaña Loor Jose E Dueñas Zambrano Nelson A Espinoza Lopez Jason K Blackburn Sadie J Ryan |
author_facet |
Catherine A Lippi Anna M Stewart-Ibarra M E Franklin Bajaña Loor Jose E Dueñas Zambrano Nelson A Espinoza Lopez Jason K Blackburn Sadie J Ryan |
author_sort |
Catherine A Lippi |
title |
Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control. |
title_short |
Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control. |
title_full |
Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control. |
title_fullStr |
Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Geographic shifts in Aedes aegypti habitat suitability in Ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: Implications of climate change for public health vector control. |
title_sort |
geographic shifts in aedes aegypti habitat suitability in ecuador using larval surveillance data and ecological niche modeling: implications of climate change for public health vector control. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 https://doaj.org/article/2c1bd1324b394df7a4c53f942881bead |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 4, p e0007322 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 https://doaj.org/article/2c1bd1324b394df7a4c53f942881bead |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007322 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
e0007322 |
_version_ |
1766344952965496832 |