Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise
We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIM BER -3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general c...
Published in: | Earth System Dynamics |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Copernicus Publications
2011
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-25-2011 https://doaj.org/article/2b2dd7c3a4264923b98754e31f223b00 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2b2dd7c3a4264923b98754e31f223b00 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2b2dd7c3a4264923b98754e31f223b00 2023-05-15T16:41:56+02:00 Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise J. Schewe A. Levermann M. Meinshausen 2011-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-25-2011 https://doaj.org/article/2b2dd7c3a4264923b98754e31f223b00 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/2/25/2011/esd-2-25-2011.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-2-25-2011 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/2b2dd7c3a4264923b98754e31f223b00 Earth System Dynamics, Vol 2, Iss 1, Pp 25-35 (2011) Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-25-2011 2022-12-31T02:45:48Z We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIM BER -3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIM BER -3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m) is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Shelf Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Earth System Dynamics 2 1 25 35 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
spellingShingle |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 J. Schewe A. Levermann M. Meinshausen Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise |
topic_facet |
Science Q Geology QE1-996.5 Dynamic and structural geology QE500-639.5 |
description |
We present climatic consequences of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) using the coupled climate model CLIM BER -3α, which contains a statistical-dynamical atmosphere and a three-dimensional ocean model. We compare those with emulations of 19 state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCM) using MAGICC6. The RCPs are designed as standard scenarios for the forthcoming IPCC Fifth Assessment Report to span the full range of future greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations pathways currently discussed. The lowest of the RCP scenarios, RCP3-PD, is projected in CLIM BER -3α to imply a maximal warming by the middle of the 21st century slightly above 1.5 °C and a slow decline of temperatures thereafter, approaching today's level by 2500. We identify two mechanisms that slow down global cooling after GHG concentrations peak: The known inertia induced by mixing-related oceanic heat uptake; and a change in oceanic convection that enhances ocean heat loss in high latitudes, reducing the surface cooling rate by almost 50%. Steric sea level rise under the RCP3-PD scenario continues for 200 years after the peak in surface air temperatures, stabilizing around 2250 at 30 cm. This contrasts with around 1.3 m of steric sea level rise by 2250, and 2 m by 2500, under the highest scenario, RCP8.5. Maximum oceanic warming at intermediate depth (300–800 m) is found to exceed that of the sea surface by the second half of the 21st century under RCP3-PD. This intermediate-depth warming persists for centuries even after surface temperatures have returned to present-day values, with potential consequences for marine ecosystems, oceanic methane hydrates, and ice-shelf stability. Due to an enhanced land-ocean temperature contrast, all scenarios yield an intensification of monsoon rainfall under global warming. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
J. Schewe A. Levermann M. Meinshausen |
author_facet |
J. Schewe A. Levermann M. Meinshausen |
author_sort |
J. Schewe |
title |
Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise |
title_short |
Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise |
title_full |
Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise |
title_fullStr |
Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °C of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise |
title_sort |
climate change under a scenario near 1.5 °c of global warming: monsoon intensification, ocean warming and steric sea level rise |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-25-2011 https://doaj.org/article/2b2dd7c3a4264923b98754e31f223b00 |
genre |
Ice Shelf |
genre_facet |
Ice Shelf |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol 2, Iss 1, Pp 25-35 (2011) |
op_relation |
http://www.earth-syst-dynam.net/2/25/2011/esd-2-25-2011.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4979 https://doaj.org/toc/2190-4987 doi:10.5194/esd-2-25-2011 2190-4979 2190-4987 https://doaj.org/article/2b2dd7c3a4264923b98754e31f223b00 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-2-25-2011 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
2 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
25 |
op_container_end_page |
35 |
_version_ |
1766032396331778048 |