Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts
The impact of the Arctic on midlatitude weather and climate is still in scientific debate. The observation-based analysis, however, shows frequent concurrences of Arctic warming with extreme cold in the midlatitudes, and vice versa. This teleconnection could aid in seasonal climate forecasts for the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2a41c86470a949df8528769b58a41338 2023-09-05T13:16:06+02:00 Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts Euihyun Jung Jee-Hoon Jeong Sung-Ho Woo Baek-Min Kim Jin-Ho Yoon Gyu-Ho Lim 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3 https://doaj.org/article/2a41c86470a949df8528769b58a41338 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/2a41c86470a949df8528769b58a41338 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 9, p 094045 (2020) Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection Arctic climate variabilities seasonal forecasting global climate model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3 2023-08-13T00:37:20Z The impact of the Arctic on midlatitude weather and climate is still in scientific debate. The observation-based analysis, however, shows frequent concurrences of Arctic warming with extreme cold in the midlatitudes, and vice versa. This teleconnection could aid in seasonal climate forecasts for the midlatitudes. This study assessed the forecast skill of Arctic temperature and the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection patterns in operational seasonal climate forecast models based on their wintertime forecast archives. Further, the impact of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on the midlatitude forecast skill is evaluated. The results revealed that most climate forecast models have the capability to simulate the overall pattern of Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection for both the eastern Eurasian and North American regions. However, this is little converted to practical forecast skill in midlatitude likely due to poor capabilities in forecasting Arctic temperatures. Idealized analysis (assuming a perfect forecast of Arctic temperature) showed that considerable forecasting improvements could be achieved, and further improvements are possible with accurate simulations of the Arctic and its teleconnection patterns. These results highlight the importance of better predictions of the Arctic conditions in seasonal forecasts that are not just limited to their own region but extend to midlatitude weather and climate as well. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 15 9 094045 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection Arctic climate variabilities seasonal forecasting global climate model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection Arctic climate variabilities seasonal forecasting global climate model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Euihyun Jung Jee-Hoon Jeong Sung-Ho Woo Baek-Min Kim Jin-Ho Yoon Gyu-Ho Lim Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts |
topic_facet |
Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection Arctic climate variabilities seasonal forecasting global climate model Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The impact of the Arctic on midlatitude weather and climate is still in scientific debate. The observation-based analysis, however, shows frequent concurrences of Arctic warming with extreme cold in the midlatitudes, and vice versa. This teleconnection could aid in seasonal climate forecasts for the midlatitudes. This study assessed the forecast skill of Arctic temperature and the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection patterns in operational seasonal climate forecast models based on their wintertime forecast archives. Further, the impact of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on the midlatitude forecast skill is evaluated. The results revealed that most climate forecast models have the capability to simulate the overall pattern of Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection for both the eastern Eurasian and North American regions. However, this is little converted to practical forecast skill in midlatitude likely due to poor capabilities in forecasting Arctic temperatures. Idealized analysis (assuming a perfect forecast of Arctic temperature) showed that considerable forecasting improvements could be achieved, and further improvements are possible with accurate simulations of the Arctic and its teleconnection patterns. These results highlight the importance of better predictions of the Arctic conditions in seasonal forecasts that are not just limited to their own region but extend to midlatitude weather and climate as well. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Euihyun Jung Jee-Hoon Jeong Sung-Ho Woo Baek-Min Kim Jin-Ho Yoon Gyu-Ho Lim |
author_facet |
Euihyun Jung Jee-Hoon Jeong Sung-Ho Woo Baek-Min Kim Jin-Ho Yoon Gyu-Ho Lim |
author_sort |
Euihyun Jung |
title |
Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts |
title_short |
Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts |
title_full |
Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impacts of the Arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts |
title_sort |
impacts of the arctic-midlatitude teleconnection on wintertime seasonal climate forecasts |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3 https://doaj.org/article/2a41c86470a949df8528769b58a41338 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 9, p 094045 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/2a41c86470a949df8528769b58a41338 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aba3a3 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
094045 |
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1776197816793694208 |