Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation
The future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and su...
Published in: | Journal of Glaciology |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Cambridge University Press
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.10 https://doaj.org/article/2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc 2024-09-15T18:07:47+00:00 Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation Eliot Jager Fabien Gillet-Chaulet Jérémie Mouginot Romain Millan https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.10 https://doaj.org/article/2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000108/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2024.10 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc Journal of Glaciology, Pp 1-18 glaciological model experiments ice-sheet modelling ice velocity Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.10 2024-08-05T17:49:33Z The future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and surface elevation of a tidewater glacier, Upernavik Isstrøm, by prescribing front positions. To achieve this, we run two ensembles of simulations with a Weertman and a regularised-Coulomb friction law. We show that the ice-flow model has to include a reduction in friction in the first 15 km upstream of the ice front in fast-flowing regions to capture the trends observed during the 1985–2019 period. Without this process, the ensemble model overestimates the ice flow before the retreat of the front in 2005 and does not fully reproduce its acceleration during the retreat. This results in an overestimation of the total mass loss between 1985 and 2019 of 50% (300 vs 200 Gt). Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis, we show that uncertainties in the friction law and the ice-flow law have a greater impact on the model results than surface mass balance and initial surface elevation. Article in Journal/Newspaper glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology Tidewater Upernavik Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Journal of Glaciology 1 18 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
glaciological model experiments ice-sheet modelling ice velocity Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
glaciological model experiments ice-sheet modelling ice velocity Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Eliot Jager Fabien Gillet-Chaulet Jérémie Mouginot Romain Millan Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
topic_facet |
glaciological model experiments ice-sheet modelling ice velocity Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
The future of tidewater glaciers in response to climate warming is one of the largest sources of uncertainty in the contribution of the Greenland ice sheet to global sea-level rise. In this study, we investigate the ability of an ice-sheet model to reproduce the past evolution of the velocity and surface elevation of a tidewater glacier, Upernavik Isstrøm, by prescribing front positions. To achieve this, we run two ensembles of simulations with a Weertman and a regularised-Coulomb friction law. We show that the ice-flow model has to include a reduction in friction in the first 15 km upstream of the ice front in fast-flowing regions to capture the trends observed during the 1985–2019 period. Without this process, the ensemble model overestimates the ice flow before the retreat of the front in 2005 and does not fully reproduce its acceleration during the retreat. This results in an overestimation of the total mass loss between 1985 and 2019 of 50% (300 vs 200 Gt). Using a variance-based sensitivity analysis, we show that uncertainties in the friction law and the ice-flow law have a greater impact on the model results than surface mass balance and initial surface elevation. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Eliot Jager Fabien Gillet-Chaulet Jérémie Mouginot Romain Millan |
author_facet |
Eliot Jager Fabien Gillet-Chaulet Jérémie Mouginot Romain Millan |
author_sort |
Eliot Jager |
title |
Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
title_short |
Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
title_full |
Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
title_fullStr |
Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
title_full_unstemmed |
Validating ensemble historical simulations of Upernavik Isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
title_sort |
validating ensemble historical simulations of upernavik isstrøm (1985–2019) using observations of surface velocity and elevation |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.10 https://doaj.org/article/2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc |
genre |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology Tidewater Upernavik |
genre_facet |
glacier Greenland Ice Sheet Journal of Glaciology Tidewater Upernavik |
op_source |
Journal of Glaciology, Pp 1-18 |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0022143024000108/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0022-1430 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5652 doi:10.1017/jog.2024.10 0022-1430 1727-5652 https://doaj.org/article/2a1bff8defc44b068a3f3675689c5fdc |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2024.10 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_start_page |
1 |
op_container_end_page |
18 |
_version_ |
1810445153936080896 |