Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts
Abstract We investigate the impact of seasonal forecast biases in the Tropical Atlantic on the North Atlantic. The analysis uses a novel ensemble‐based method to estimate the impact of tropical rainfall bias on forecasts of the Extratropical North Atlantic. The inter‐ensemble spread of the forecast...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:29f6a7b991e84cd089112e70fd694cac 2024-09-09T19:54:25+00:00 Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts T. Collier J. Kettleborough A. A. Scaife L. Hermanson P. Davis 2024-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1205 https://doaj.org/article/29f6a7b991e84cd089112e70fd694cac EN eng Wiley https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1205 https://doaj.org/toc/1530-261X 1530-261X doi:10.1002/asl.1205 https://doaj.org/article/29f6a7b991e84cd089112e70fd694cac Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol 25, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) Boreal winter North Atlantic oscillation planetary waves predictability Rossby waves seasonal timescale Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1205 2024-08-05T17:49:40Z Abstract We investigate the impact of seasonal forecast biases in the Tropical Atlantic on the North Atlantic. The analysis uses a novel ensemble‐based method to estimate the impact of tropical rainfall bias on forecasts of the Extratropical North Atlantic. The inter‐ensemble spread of the forecast model is used to estimate the impact of the bias in Tropical Atlantic rainfall on the North Atlantic by selecting model members that happen to produce forecast anomalies that most closely resemble the tropical rainfall bias and using these as a proxy for the model error. The Tropical Atlantic rainfall bias impacts Rossby wave sources over the Subtropical Atlantic and there is a clear Rossby wave pattern originating from this area which is comparable to the mean bias in hindcasts. We argue that Tropical Atlantic rainfall errors explain a significant amount of the bias in seasonal forecasts over the Extratropical North Atlantic. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Science Letters 25 4 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Boreal winter North Atlantic oscillation planetary waves predictability Rossby waves seasonal timescale Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Boreal winter North Atlantic oscillation planetary waves predictability Rossby waves seasonal timescale Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 T. Collier J. Kettleborough A. A. Scaife L. Hermanson P. Davis Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts |
topic_facet |
Boreal winter North Atlantic oscillation planetary waves predictability Rossby waves seasonal timescale Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract We investigate the impact of seasonal forecast biases in the Tropical Atlantic on the North Atlantic. The analysis uses a novel ensemble‐based method to estimate the impact of tropical rainfall bias on forecasts of the Extratropical North Atlantic. The inter‐ensemble spread of the forecast model is used to estimate the impact of the bias in Tropical Atlantic rainfall on the North Atlantic by selecting model members that happen to produce forecast anomalies that most closely resemble the tropical rainfall bias and using these as a proxy for the model error. The Tropical Atlantic rainfall bias impacts Rossby wave sources over the Subtropical Atlantic and there is a clear Rossby wave pattern originating from this area which is comparable to the mean bias in hindcasts. We argue that Tropical Atlantic rainfall errors explain a significant amount of the bias in seasonal forecasts over the Extratropical North Atlantic. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
T. Collier J. Kettleborough A. A. Scaife L. Hermanson P. Davis |
author_facet |
T. Collier J. Kettleborough A. A. Scaife L. Hermanson P. Davis |
author_sort |
T. Collier |
title |
Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts |
title_short |
Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts |
title_full |
Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts |
title_fullStr |
Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts |
title_full_unstemmed |
Tropical Atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts |
title_sort |
tropical atlantic rainfall drives bias in extratropical seasonal forecasts |
publisher |
Wiley |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1205 https://doaj.org/article/29f6a7b991e84cd089112e70fd694cac |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol 25, Iss 4, Pp n/a-n/a (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1205 https://doaj.org/toc/1530-261X 1530-261X doi:10.1002/asl.1205 https://doaj.org/article/29f6a7b991e84cd089112e70fd694cac |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1205 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Science Letters |
container_volume |
25 |
container_issue |
4 |
_version_ |
1809923813175984128 |