Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China
Study region: Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. Study focus: We investigated potential climate change under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and their impacts on frozen ground in the upper Heihe River Basin using the ensemble climate data from eight general...
Published in: | Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
Elsevier
2022
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101137 https://doaj.org/article/28a62e1ddac64c0f965126c302931080 |
id |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:28a62e1ddac64c0f965126c302931080 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:28a62e1ddac64c0f965126c302931080 2023-05-15T17:58:02+02:00 Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China Jingyi Hu Yiping Wu Wenzhi Zhao Fan Wang Guangchuang Zhang Linjing Qiu Jinyu Hui Xiaowei Yin 2022-08-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101137 https://doaj.org/article/28a62e1ddac64c0f965126c302931080 EN eng Elsevier http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822001501 https://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818 2214-5818 doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101137 https://doaj.org/article/28a62e1ddac64c0f965126c302931080 Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 42, Iss , Pp 101137- (2022) Climate change Long-term warning system Frost depth Freezing-thawing indices Soil and Water Assessment Tool Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101137 2022-12-31T00:56:51Z Study region: Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. Study focus: We investigated potential climate change under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and their impacts on frozen ground in the upper Heihe River Basin using the ensemble climate data from eight general circulation models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). New hydrological insights for the region: Air and ground freezing indices declined significantly during the baseline period (1976–2015), whereas the thawing indices increased, indicating the heat accumulation in study area. The frost depth, which refers to the potential frost depth of active layer in permafrost areas and the maximum frost depth in seasonally frozen areas, decreased significantly at the rate of 3 cm/10 yr. The SWAT-simulation and gray relational analysis revealed that soil water was controlled by precipitation and frost depth in spring and autumn. Compared to that of the baseline, the projected frost depth is projected to decline by 0.07–0.1 m during the near future (2020–2059) and 0.08–0.36 m for the far future (2060–2099). In addition, we developed a long-term warning system, which indicates that the degree of frozen ground degradation would be mild during the near future and would be severe for the far future under RCP 8.5. This study provides valuable insights into the protection of frozen-ground in the Upper Heihe River Basin. Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies 42 101137 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate change Long-term warning system Frost depth Freezing-thawing indices Soil and Water Assessment Tool Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Climate change Long-term warning system Frost depth Freezing-thawing indices Soil and Water Assessment Tool Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 Jingyi Hu Yiping Wu Wenzhi Zhao Fan Wang Guangchuang Zhang Linjing Qiu Jinyu Hui Xiaowei Yin Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China |
topic_facet |
Climate change Long-term warning system Frost depth Freezing-thawing indices Soil and Water Assessment Tool Physical geography GB3-5030 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Study region: Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China. Study focus: We investigated potential climate change under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP 2.6, 4.5, and 8.5) and their impacts on frozen ground in the upper Heihe River Basin using the ensemble climate data from eight general circulation models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). New hydrological insights for the region: Air and ground freezing indices declined significantly during the baseline period (1976–2015), whereas the thawing indices increased, indicating the heat accumulation in study area. The frost depth, which refers to the potential frost depth of active layer in permafrost areas and the maximum frost depth in seasonally frozen areas, decreased significantly at the rate of 3 cm/10 yr. The SWAT-simulation and gray relational analysis revealed that soil water was controlled by precipitation and frost depth in spring and autumn. Compared to that of the baseline, the projected frost depth is projected to decline by 0.07–0.1 m during the near future (2020–2059) and 0.08–0.36 m for the far future (2060–2099). In addition, we developed a long-term warning system, which indicates that the degree of frozen ground degradation would be mild during the near future and would be severe for the far future under RCP 8.5. This study provides valuable insights into the protection of frozen-ground in the Upper Heihe River Basin. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jingyi Hu Yiping Wu Wenzhi Zhao Fan Wang Guangchuang Zhang Linjing Qiu Jinyu Hui Xiaowei Yin |
author_facet |
Jingyi Hu Yiping Wu Wenzhi Zhao Fan Wang Guangchuang Zhang Linjing Qiu Jinyu Hui Xiaowei Yin |
author_sort |
Jingyi Hu |
title |
Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China |
title_short |
Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China |
title_full |
Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China |
title_fullStr |
Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the Upper Heihe River Basin, Northwest China |
title_sort |
assessment and projection of ground freezing–thawing responses to climate change in the upper heihe river basin, northwest china |
publisher |
Elsevier |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101137 https://doaj.org/article/28a62e1ddac64c0f965126c302931080 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, Vol 42, Iss , Pp 101137- (2022) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214581822001501 https://doaj.org/toc/2214-5818 2214-5818 doi:10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101137 https://doaj.org/article/28a62e1ddac64c0f965126c302931080 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ejrh.2022.101137 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies |
container_volume |
42 |
container_start_page |
101137 |
_version_ |
1766166555039629312 |