The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations
Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:279196dfbe6740979ff48081b85e0e56 2023-05-15T13:45:29+02:00 The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations Aimée B. A. Slangen Roderik S. W. van de Wal Thomas J. Reerink Renske C. de Winter John R. Hunter Philip L. Woodworth Tamsin Edwards 2017-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 https://doaj.org/article/279196dfbe6740979ff48081b85e0e56 EN eng MDPI AG http://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/2/21 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse5020021 https://doaj.org/article/279196dfbe6740979ff48081b85e0e56 Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 5, Iss 2, p 21 (2017) sea-level rise allowances sea-level extremes Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 2022-12-31T04:25:05Z Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics’ uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions), due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 10 4 at more than 50–87% of the tide gauges. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland Journal of Marine Science and Engineering 5 2 21 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
sea-level rise allowances sea-level extremes Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
spellingShingle |
sea-level rise allowances sea-level extremes Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 Aimée B. A. Slangen Roderik S. W. van de Wal Thomas J. Reerink Renske C. de Winter John R. Hunter Philip L. Woodworth Tamsin Edwards The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations |
topic_facet |
sea-level rise allowances sea-level extremes Naval architecture. Shipbuilding. Marine engineering VM1-989 Oceanography GC1-1581 |
description |
Sea level is projected to rise in the coming centuries as a result of a changing climate. One of the major uncertainties is the projected contribution of the ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica to sea-level rise (SLR). Here, we study the impact of different shapes of uncertainty distributions of the ice sheets on so-called sea-level allowances. An allowance indicates the height a coastal structure needs to be elevated to keep the same frequency and likelihood of sea-level extremes under a projected amount of mean SLR. Allowances are always larger than the projected SLR. Their magnitude depends on several factors, such as projection uncertainty and the typical variability of the extreme events at a location. Our results show that allowances increase significantly for ice sheet dynamics’ uncertainty distributions that are more skewed (more than twice, compared to Gaussian uncertainty distributions), due to the increased probability of a much larger ice sheet contribution to SLR. The allowances are largest in regions where a relatively small observed variability in the extremes is paired with relatively large magnitude and/or large uncertainty in the projected SLR, typically around the equator. Under the RCP8.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway) projections of SLR, the likelihood of extremes increases more than a factor 10 4 at more than 50–87% of the tide gauges. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Aimée B. A. Slangen Roderik S. W. van de Wal Thomas J. Reerink Renske C. de Winter John R. Hunter Philip L. Woodworth Tamsin Edwards |
author_facet |
Aimée B. A. Slangen Roderik S. W. van de Wal Thomas J. Reerink Renske C. de Winter John R. Hunter Philip L. Woodworth Tamsin Edwards |
author_sort |
Aimée B. A. Slangen |
title |
The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations |
title_short |
The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations |
title_full |
The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations |
title_fullStr |
The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations |
title_full_unstemmed |
The Impact of Uncertainties in Ice Sheet Dynamics on Sea-Level Allowances at Tide Gauge Locations |
title_sort |
impact of uncertainties in ice sheet dynamics on sea-level allowances at tide gauge locations |
publisher |
MDPI AG |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 https://doaj.org/article/279196dfbe6740979ff48081b85e0e56 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering, Vol 5, Iss 2, p 21 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://www.mdpi.com/2077-1312/5/2/21 https://doaj.org/toc/2077-1312 2077-1312 doi:10.3390/jmse5020021 https://doaj.org/article/279196dfbe6740979ff48081b85e0e56 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3390/jmse5020021 |
container_title |
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
21 |
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1766225083206991872 |