Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming
North-east Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution has shifted northward in the last three decades probably in response to global sea warming. Yet, uncertainties subsist regarding on the shift rate, causalities, and how this species will respond to future conditions. Using egg surveys, we explored t...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:27191fd8702a4078b90d9668e4e60be4 2023-05-15T17:38:23+02:00 Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming Antoine eBruge Paula eAlvarez Almudena eFontán Unai eCotano Guillem eChust 2016-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00086 https://doaj.org/article/27191fd8702a4078b90d9668e4e60be4 EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fmars.2016.00086/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00086 https://doaj.org/article/27191fd8702a4078b90d9668e4e60be4 Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 3 (2016) Climate Change projections species distribution models spawning mackerel Thermal habitat Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 article 2016 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00086 2022-12-31T01:16:00Z North-east Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution has shifted northward in the last three decades probably in response to global sea warming. Yet, uncertainties subsist regarding on the shift rate, causalities, and how this species will respond to future conditions. Using egg surveys, we explored the influence of temperature change on mackerel’s spawning distribution (western and southern spawning components of the stock) between 1992 and 2013, and projected how it may change under future climate change scenarios. We developed three generalized additive models: (i) a spatiotemporal model to reconstruct the spawning distribution for the north-east Atlantic stock over the period 1992-2013, to estimate the rate of shift; (ii) a thermal habitat model to assess if spawning mackerel have tracked their thermal spawning-niche; and (iii) a niche-based model to project future spawning distribution under two predicted climate change scenarios. Our findings showed that mackerel spawning activity has shifted northward at a rate of 15.9 ± 0.9 km/decade between 1992 and 2013. Similarly, using the thermal habitat model, we detected a northward shift of the thermal spawning-niche. This indicates that mackerel has spawned at higher latitudes to partially tracking their thermal spawning-niche, at a rate of 28.0 ± 9.0 km/°C of sea warming. Under future scenarios (mid and end of the century), the extrapolation of the niche-based model to coupled hydroclimatic and biogeochemical models indicates that centre of gravity of mackerel spawning distribution is expected to shift westward (32 to 117 km) and northward (0.5 to 328 km), but with high variability according to scenarios and time frames. The future of the overall egg production in the area is uncertain (change from -9.3% to 12%). With the aim to allow the fishing industry to anticipate the future distribution of mackerel shoals during the spawning period, future research should focus on reducing uncertainty in projections. Article in Journal/Newspaper North East Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Frontiers in Marine Science 3 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate Change projections species distribution models spawning mackerel Thermal habitat Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
spellingShingle |
Climate Change projections species distribution models spawning mackerel Thermal habitat Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 Antoine eBruge Paula eAlvarez Almudena eFontán Unai eCotano Guillem eChust Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming |
topic_facet |
Climate Change projections species distribution models spawning mackerel Thermal habitat Science Q General. Including nature conservation geographical distribution QH1-199.5 |
description |
North-east Atlantic mackerel spawning distribution has shifted northward in the last three decades probably in response to global sea warming. Yet, uncertainties subsist regarding on the shift rate, causalities, and how this species will respond to future conditions. Using egg surveys, we explored the influence of temperature change on mackerel’s spawning distribution (western and southern spawning components of the stock) between 1992 and 2013, and projected how it may change under future climate change scenarios. We developed three generalized additive models: (i) a spatiotemporal model to reconstruct the spawning distribution for the north-east Atlantic stock over the period 1992-2013, to estimate the rate of shift; (ii) a thermal habitat model to assess if spawning mackerel have tracked their thermal spawning-niche; and (iii) a niche-based model to project future spawning distribution under two predicted climate change scenarios. Our findings showed that mackerel spawning activity has shifted northward at a rate of 15.9 ± 0.9 km/decade between 1992 and 2013. Similarly, using the thermal habitat model, we detected a northward shift of the thermal spawning-niche. This indicates that mackerel has spawned at higher latitudes to partially tracking their thermal spawning-niche, at a rate of 28.0 ± 9.0 km/°C of sea warming. Under future scenarios (mid and end of the century), the extrapolation of the niche-based model to coupled hydroclimatic and biogeochemical models indicates that centre of gravity of mackerel spawning distribution is expected to shift westward (32 to 117 km) and northward (0.5 to 328 km), but with high variability according to scenarios and time frames. The future of the overall egg production in the area is uncertain (change from -9.3% to 12%). With the aim to allow the fishing industry to anticipate the future distribution of mackerel shoals during the spawning period, future research should focus on reducing uncertainty in projections. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Antoine eBruge Paula eAlvarez Almudena eFontán Unai eCotano Guillem eChust |
author_facet |
Antoine eBruge Paula eAlvarez Almudena eFontán Unai eCotano Guillem eChust |
author_sort |
Antoine eBruge |
title |
Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming |
title_short |
Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming |
title_full |
Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming |
title_fullStr |
Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming |
title_full_unstemmed |
Thermal Niche Tracking and Future Distribution of Atlantic Mackerel Spawning in response to Ocean Warming |
title_sort |
thermal niche tracking and future distribution of atlantic mackerel spawning in response to ocean warming |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00086 https://doaj.org/article/27191fd8702a4078b90d9668e4e60be4 |
genre |
North East Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North East Atlantic |
op_source |
Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol 3 (2016) |
op_relation |
http://journal.frontiersin.org/Journal/10.3389/fmars.2016.00086/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-7745 2296-7745 doi:10.3389/fmars.2016.00086 https://doaj.org/article/27191fd8702a4078b90d9668e4e60be4 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2016.00086 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Marine Science |
container_volume |
3 |
_version_ |
1766138805659631616 |