Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century
The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model (UK Met Office's Unified...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:25edd229ca6b4bec957b7c2ddb20260c 2023-05-15T18:18:51+02:00 Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century A. Banerjee A. C. Maycock J. A. Pyle 2018-02-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018 https://doaj.org/article/25edd229ca6b4bec957b7c2ddb20260c EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/2899/2018/acp-18-2899-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/25edd229ca6b4bec957b7c2ddb20260c Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 18, Pp 2899-2911 (2018) Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018 2022-12-30T20:51:20Z The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 W m −2 . This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m −2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m −2 , which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (∼ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m −2 ) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 W m −2 ) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m −2 ) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 18 4 2899 2911 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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language |
English |
topic |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 A. Banerjee A. C. Maycock J. A. Pyle Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century |
topic_facet |
Physics QC1-999 Chemistry QD1-999 |
description |
The ozone radiative forcings (RFs) resulting from projected changes in climate, ozone-depleting substances (ODSs), non-methane ozone precursor emissions and methane between the years 2000 and 2100 are calculated using simulations from the UM-UKCA chemistry–climate model (UK Met Office's Unified Model containing the United Kingdom Chemistry and Aerosols sub-model). Projected measures to improve air-quality through reductions in non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor emissions present a co-benefit for climate, with a net global mean ozone RF of −0.09 W m −2 . This is opposed by a positive ozone RF of 0.05 W m −2 due to future decreases in ODSs, which is driven by an increase in tropospheric ozone through stratosphere-to-troposphere transport of air containing higher ozone amounts. An increase in methane abundance by more than a factor of 2 (as projected by the RCP8.5 scenario) is found to drive an ozone RF of 0.18 W m −2 , which would greatly outweigh the climate benefits of non-methane tropospheric ozone precursor reductions. A small fraction (∼ 15 %) of the ozone RF due to the projected increase in methane results from increases in stratospheric ozone. The sign of the ozone RF due to future changes in climate (including the radiative effects of greenhouse gases, sea surface temperatures and sea ice changes) is shown to be dependent on the greenhouse gas emissions pathway, with a positive RF (0.05 W m −2 ) for RCP4.5 and a negative RF (−0.07 W m −2 ) for the RCP8.5 scenario. This dependence arises mainly from differences in the contribution to RF from stratospheric ozone changes. Considering the increases in tropopause height under climate change causes only small differences (≤ |0.02| W m −2 ) for the stratospheric, tropospheric and whole-atmosphere RFs. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. Banerjee A. C. Maycock J. A. Pyle |
author_facet |
A. Banerjee A. C. Maycock J. A. Pyle |
author_sort |
A. Banerjee |
title |
Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century |
title_short |
Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century |
title_full |
Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century |
title_sort |
chemical and climatic drivers of radiative forcing due to changes in stratospheric and tropospheric ozone over the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018 https://doaj.org/article/25edd229ca6b4bec957b7c2ddb20260c |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol 18, Pp 2899-2911 (2018) |
op_relation |
https://www.atmos-chem-phys.net/18/2899/2018/acp-18-2899-2018.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7316 https://doaj.org/toc/1680-7324 doi:10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018 1680-7316 1680-7324 https://doaj.org/article/25edd229ca6b4bec957b7c2ddb20260c |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-18-2899-2018 |
container_title |
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
2899 |
op_container_end_page |
2911 |
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1766195580599533568 |