Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter
Marine-based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are increasingly contributing to sea level rise. The basal conditions exert an important control on the ice dynamics and can be propitious to instabilities in the grounding line position. Because the force balance is non-inertial, most ice flow models...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:258c62e24bdd4568811d53ce08381fac 2023-05-15T13:47:24+02:00 Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter F. Gillet-Chaulet 2020-03-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-811-2020 https://doaj.org/article/258c62e24bdd4568811d53ce08381fac EN eng Copernicus Publications https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/811/2020/tc-14-811-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-811-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/258c62e24bdd4568811d53ce08381fac The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 811-832 (2020) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-811-2020 2022-12-31T01:36:03Z Marine-based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are increasingly contributing to sea level rise. The basal conditions exert an important control on the ice dynamics and can be propitious to instabilities in the grounding line position. Because the force balance is non-inertial, most ice flow models are now equipped with time-independent inverse methods to constrain the basal conditions from observed surface velocities. However, transient simulations starting from this initial state usually suffer from inconsistencies and are not able to reproduce observed trends. Here, using a synthetic flow line experiment, we assess the performance of an ensemble Kalman filter for the assimilation of transient observations of surface elevation and velocities in a marine ice sheet model. The model solves the shallow shelf equation for the force balance and the continuity equation for ice thickness evolution. The position of the grounding line is determined by the floatation criterion. The filter analysis estimates both the state of the model, represented by the surface elevation, and the basal conditions, with the simultaneous inversion of the basal friction and topography. The idealised experiment reproduces a marine ice sheet that is in the early stage of an unstable retreat. Using observation frequencies and uncertainties consistent with current observing systems, we find that the filter allows the accurate recovery of both the basal friction and topography after few assimilation cycles with relatively small ensemble sizes. In addition it is found that assimilating the surface observations has a positive impact on constraining the evolution of the grounding line during the assimilation window. Using the initialised state to perform century-scale forecast simulations, we show that grounding line retreat rates are in agreement with the reference; however remaining uncertainties in the basal conditions may lead to significant delays in the initiation of the unstable retreat. These results are encouraging for the application to ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic The Antarctic The Cryosphere 14 3 811 832 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 F. Gillet-Chaulet Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Marine-based sectors of the Antarctic Ice Sheet are increasingly contributing to sea level rise. The basal conditions exert an important control on the ice dynamics and can be propitious to instabilities in the grounding line position. Because the force balance is non-inertial, most ice flow models are now equipped with time-independent inverse methods to constrain the basal conditions from observed surface velocities. However, transient simulations starting from this initial state usually suffer from inconsistencies and are not able to reproduce observed trends. Here, using a synthetic flow line experiment, we assess the performance of an ensemble Kalman filter for the assimilation of transient observations of surface elevation and velocities in a marine ice sheet model. The model solves the shallow shelf equation for the force balance and the continuity equation for ice thickness evolution. The position of the grounding line is determined by the floatation criterion. The filter analysis estimates both the state of the model, represented by the surface elevation, and the basal conditions, with the simultaneous inversion of the basal friction and topography. The idealised experiment reproduces a marine ice sheet that is in the early stage of an unstable retreat. Using observation frequencies and uncertainties consistent with current observing systems, we find that the filter allows the accurate recovery of both the basal friction and topography after few assimilation cycles with relatively small ensemble sizes. In addition it is found that assimilating the surface observations has a positive impact on constraining the evolution of the grounding line during the assimilation window. Using the initialised state to perform century-scale forecast simulations, we show that grounding line retreat rates are in agreement with the reference; however remaining uncertainties in the basal conditions may lead to significant delays in the initiation of the unstable retreat. These results are encouraging for the application to ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
F. Gillet-Chaulet |
author_facet |
F. Gillet-Chaulet |
author_sort |
F. Gillet-Chaulet |
title |
Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter |
title_short |
Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter |
title_full |
Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter |
title_fullStr |
Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble Kalman filter |
title_sort |
assimilation of surface observations in a transient marine ice sheet model using an ensemble kalman filter |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-811-2020 https://doaj.org/article/258c62e24bdd4568811d53ce08381fac |
geographic |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 14, Pp 811-832 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.the-cryosphere.net/14/811/2020/tc-14-811-2020.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-14-811-2020 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/258c62e24bdd4568811d53ce08381fac |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-14-811-2020 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
811 |
op_container_end_page |
832 |
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1766247065756631040 |