Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data
Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the region...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:253d4ae48f094d0aae341029593fa856 2023-05-15T15:12:16+02:00 Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data Craig Nicolson Matthew Berman Colin Thor. West Gary P. Kofinas Brad Griffith Don Russell Darcy Dugan 2013-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05376-180201 https://doaj.org/article/253d4ae48f094d0aae341029593fa856 EN eng Resilience Alliance http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol18/iss2/art1/ https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-05376-180201 https://doaj.org/article/253d4ae48f094d0aae341029593fa856 Ecology and Society, Vol 18, Iss 2, p 1 (2013) caribou markovian migration Rangifer tarandus granti seasonal distribution simulation subsistence hunting Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2013 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05376-180201 2022-12-31T11:33:54Z Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Rangifer tarandus Alaska Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Canada Ecology and Society 18 2 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
caribou markovian migration Rangifer tarandus granti seasonal distribution simulation subsistence hunting Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
caribou markovian migration Rangifer tarandus granti seasonal distribution simulation subsistence hunting Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 Craig Nicolson Matthew Berman Colin Thor. West Gary P. Kofinas Brad Griffith Don Russell Darcy Dugan Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
topic_facet |
caribou markovian migration Rangifer tarandus granti seasonal distribution simulation subsistence hunting Biology (General) QH301-705.5 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
Livelihood systems that depend on mobile resources must constantly adapt to change. For people living in permanent settlements, environmental changes that affect the distribution of a migratory species may reduce the availability of a primary food source, with the potential to destabilize the regional social-ecological system. Food security for Arctic indigenous peoples harvesting barren ground caribou (Rangifer tarandus granti) depends on movement patterns of migratory herds. Quantitative assessments of physical, ecological, and social effects on caribou distribution have proven difficult because of the significant interannual variability in seasonal caribou movement patterns. We developed and evaluated a modeling approach for simulating the distribution of a migratory herd throughout its annual cycle over a multiyear period. Beginning with spatial and temporal scales developed in previous studies of the Porcupine Caribou Herd of Canada and Alaska, we used satellite collar locations to compute and analyze season-by-season probabilities of movement of animals between habitat zones under two alternative weather conditions for each season. We then built a set of transition matrices from these movement probabilities, and simulated the sequence of movements across the landscape as a Markov process driven by externally imposed seasonal weather states. Statistical tests showed that the predicted distributions of caribou were consistent with observed distributions, and significantly correlated with subsistence harvest levels for three user communities. Our approach could be applied to other caribou herds and could be adapted for simulating the distribution of other ungulates and species with similarly large interannual variability in the use of their range. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Craig Nicolson Matthew Berman Colin Thor. West Gary P. Kofinas Brad Griffith Don Russell Darcy Dugan |
author_facet |
Craig Nicolson Matthew Berman Colin Thor. West Gary P. Kofinas Brad Griffith Don Russell Darcy Dugan |
author_sort |
Craig Nicolson |
title |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_short |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_full |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_fullStr |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Seasonal Climate Variation and Caribou Availability: Modeling Sequential Movement Using Satellite-Relocation Data |
title_sort |
seasonal climate variation and caribou availability: modeling sequential movement using satellite-relocation data |
publisher |
Resilience Alliance |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05376-180201 https://doaj.org/article/253d4ae48f094d0aae341029593fa856 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada |
genre |
Arctic Rangifer tarandus Alaska |
genre_facet |
Arctic Rangifer tarandus Alaska |
op_source |
Ecology and Society, Vol 18, Iss 2, p 1 (2013) |
op_relation |
http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol18/iss2/art1/ https://doaj.org/toc/1708-3087 1708-3087 doi:10.5751/ES-05376-180201 https://doaj.org/article/253d4ae48f094d0aae341029593fa856 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5751/ES-05376-180201 |
container_title |
Ecology and Society |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
2 |
_version_ |
1766342972257861632 |