Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections
Abstract Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and climate-related risks. We adopt an analysis pipeline insp...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:24c00d3a6b7d4c52a32e9c726cfd7c36 2024-09-15T18:10:07+00:00 Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections Sebastian Springer Alessandro Laio Vera Melinda Galfi Valerio Lucarini 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5 https://doaj.org/article/24c00d3a6b7d4c52a32e9c726cfd7c36 EN eng Nature Portfolio https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/24c00d3a6b7d4c52a32e9c726cfd7c36 npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5 2024-08-05T17:49:22Z Abstract Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and climate-related risks. We adopt an analysis pipeline inspired by Markov State Modelling and detect in an unsupervised manner the dominant winter mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere weather patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. The daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields are first classified in about 200 microstates. The weather dynamics are then represented on the basis of these microstates and the slowest decaying modes are identified from the spectral properties of the transition probability matrix. These modes are defined on the basis of the nonlinear dynamical processes of the system and not as tentative metastable states, as often done in Markov state analysis. When focusing on a shifting longitudinal window of 60∘, we find that the longitude-dependent estimate of the longest relaxation time is smaller where stronger baroclinic activity is found. In the Atlantic and Pacific sectors slow relaxation processes are mainly related to transitions between blocked regimes and zonal flow. We also find strong evidence of a dynamical regime associated with the simultaneous Atlantic-Pacific blocking. When the analysis is performed on a broader geographical region of the Atlantic sector, we discover that the slowest relaxation modes of the system are associated with transitions between dynamical regimes that resemble teleconnection patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and weather regimes like the Scandinavian and Greenland blocking, yet have a much stronger dynamical foundation than classical methods based e.g. on EOF analysis. Our method clarifies that, as a result of the lack of a time-scale separation in the atmospheric variability of the mid-latitudes, there is no clear-cut way to represent the atmospheric dynamics in terms of few, well-defined modes of ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles npj Climate and Atmospheric Science 7 1 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
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Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Sebastian Springer Alessandro Laio Vera Melinda Galfi Valerio Lucarini Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Abstract Detecting recurrent weather patterns and understanding the transitions between such regimes are key to advancing our knowledge of the low-frequency variability of the atmosphere and have important implications in terms of weather and climate-related risks. We adopt an analysis pipeline inspired by Markov State Modelling and detect in an unsupervised manner the dominant winter mid-latitude Northern Hemisphere weather patterns in the Atlantic and Pacific sectors. The daily 500 hPa geopotential height fields are first classified in about 200 microstates. The weather dynamics are then represented on the basis of these microstates and the slowest decaying modes are identified from the spectral properties of the transition probability matrix. These modes are defined on the basis of the nonlinear dynamical processes of the system and not as tentative metastable states, as often done in Markov state analysis. When focusing on a shifting longitudinal window of 60∘, we find that the longitude-dependent estimate of the longest relaxation time is smaller where stronger baroclinic activity is found. In the Atlantic and Pacific sectors slow relaxation processes are mainly related to transitions between blocked regimes and zonal flow. We also find strong evidence of a dynamical regime associated with the simultaneous Atlantic-Pacific blocking. When the analysis is performed on a broader geographical region of the Atlantic sector, we discover that the slowest relaxation modes of the system are associated with transitions between dynamical regimes that resemble teleconnection patterns like the North Atlantic Oscillation and weather regimes like the Scandinavian and Greenland blocking, yet have a much stronger dynamical foundation than classical methods based e.g. on EOF analysis. Our method clarifies that, as a result of the lack of a time-scale separation in the atmospheric variability of the mid-latitudes, there is no clear-cut way to represent the atmospheric dynamics in terms of few, well-defined modes of ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sebastian Springer Alessandro Laio Vera Melinda Galfi Valerio Lucarini |
author_facet |
Sebastian Springer Alessandro Laio Vera Melinda Galfi Valerio Lucarini |
author_sort |
Sebastian Springer |
title |
Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections |
title_short |
Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections |
title_full |
Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections |
title_fullStr |
Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections |
title_full_unstemmed |
Unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via Markov State Modelling: from blockings to teleconnections |
title_sort |
unsupervised detection of large-scale weather patterns in the northern hemisphere via markov state modelling: from blockings to teleconnections |
publisher |
Nature Portfolio |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5 https://doaj.org/article/24c00d3a6b7d4c52a32e9c726cfd7c36 |
genre |
Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol 7, Iss 1, Pp 1-13 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5 https://doaj.org/toc/2397-3722 doi:10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5 2397-3722 https://doaj.org/article/24c00d3a6b7d4c52a32e9c726cfd7c36 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-024-00659-5 |
container_title |
npj Climate and Atmospheric Science |
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7 |
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1 |
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1810447711021826048 |