Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting.
The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrow...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba709 2023-05-15T17:45:38+02:00 Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting. Kyle S Van Houtan John M Halley 2011-04-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0019043 https://doaj.org/article/249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba709 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21589639/pdf/?tool=EBI https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019043 https://doaj.org/article/249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba709 PLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 4, p e19043 (2011) Medicine R Science Q article 2011 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0019043 2022-12-31T08:05:03Z The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. Article in Journal/Newspaper Northwest Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific PLoS ONE 6 4 e19043 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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English |
topic |
Medicine R Science Q |
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Medicine R Science Q Kyle S Van Houtan John M Halley Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting. |
topic_facet |
Medicine R Science Q |
description |
The long-term variability of marine turtle populations remains poorly understood, limiting science and management. Here we use basin-scale climate indices and regional surface temperatures to estimate loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta) nesting at a variety of spatial and temporal scales. Borrowing from fisheries research, our models investigate how oceanographic processes influence juvenile recruitment and regulate population dynamics. This novel approach finds local populations in the North Pacific and Northwest Atlantic are regionally synchronized and strongly correlated to ocean conditions--such that climate models alone explain up to 88% of the observed changes over the past several decades. In addition to its performance, climate-based modeling also provides mechanistic forecasts of historical and future population changes. Hindcasts in both regions indicate climatic conditions may have been a factor in recent declines, but future forecasts are mixed. Available climatic data suggests the Pacific population will be significantly reduced by 2040, but indicates the Atlantic population may increase substantially. These results do not exonerate anthropogenic impacts, but highlight the significance of bottom-up oceanographic processes to marine organisms. Future studies should consider environmental baselines in assessments of marine turtle population variability and persistence. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Kyle S Van Houtan John M Halley |
author_facet |
Kyle S Van Houtan John M Halley |
author_sort |
Kyle S Van Houtan |
title |
Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting. |
title_short |
Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting. |
title_full |
Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting. |
title_fullStr |
Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting. |
title_sort |
long-term climate forcing in loggerhead sea turtle nesting. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2011 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0019043 https://doaj.org/article/249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba709 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
Northwest Atlantic |
genre_facet |
Northwest Atlantic |
op_source |
PLoS ONE, Vol 6, Iss 4, p e19043 (2011) |
op_relation |
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/pmid/21589639/pdf/?tool=EBI https://doaj.org/toc/1932-6203 1932-6203 doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0019043 https://doaj.org/article/249d287416b547fd94e631ed81cba709 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0019043 |
container_title |
PLoS ONE |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
e19043 |
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1766148813011025920 |