TUNDRA IN A CHANGING CLIMATE

• Published in: GEOGRAPHY, ENVIRONMENT, SUSTAINABILITY
• Main Authors: Terry Callaghan, Andrei Velichko, Olga Borisova
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Lomonosov Moscow State University 2011
• Subjects: tundra; polar ecosystems; global warming; northern tree line shifts; Geography (General); G1-922; Arctic; Global warming; Tundra
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.24057/2071-9388-2011-4-3-4-18; https://doaj.org/article/23e031582e3743b8849c7e93a6c6c750

Both palaeogeographical reconstructions and general circulation models indicate that global warming is especially strongly manifested in high latitudes. Under a 2°C increase in mean global temperature, almost the entire modern tundra zone would become potentially suitable for tree growth. Nevertheless, palaeobotanic data cannot be applied directly to estimating vegetation response to the global warming expected in the 21st century, as they characterize a quasi-equilibrium state of ecosystems, which takes several centuries to be achieved. Low migration rates of trees, damage caused by fires and insects, processes of soil drying or paludification, and influence of herbivorous animals and human activities may slow down considerably forest spread in tundra. Climate warming will probably cause a decline in the populations of Arctic species and expansion of ranges of some southern animal species into the Arctic.