Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control.
<label>BACKGROUND</label>Zika virus transmission dynamics in urban environments follow a complex spatiotemporal pattern that appears unpredictable and barely related to high mosquito density areas. In this context, human activity patterns likely have a major role in Zika transmission dyn...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2389ed5ed6064d9c9b83ae7e053ad3be 2023-05-15T15:12:03+02:00 Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control. Marco Ajelli Imelda K Moise Tricia Caroline S G Hutchings Scott C Brown Naresh Kumar Neil F Johnson John C Beier 2017-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005851 https://doaj.org/article/2389ed5ed6064d9c9b83ae7e053ad3be EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5598931?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005851 https://doaj.org/article/2389ed5ed6064d9c9b83ae7e053ad3be PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 9, p e0005851 (2017) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005851 2022-12-31T03:53:45Z <label>BACKGROUND</label>Zika virus transmission dynamics in urban environments follow a complex spatiotemporal pattern that appears unpredictable and barely related to high mosquito density areas. In this context, human activity patterns likely have a major role in Zika transmission dynamics. This paper examines the effect of host variability in the amount of time spent outdoors on Zika epidemiology in an urban environment.<label>METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS</label>First, we performed a survey on time spent outdoors by residents of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Second, we analyzed both the survey and previously published national data on outdoors time in the U.S. to provide estimates of the distribution of the time spent outdoors. Third, we performed a computational modeling evaluation of Zika transmission dynamics, based on the time spent outdoors by each person. Our analysis reveals a strong heterogeneity of the host population in terms of time spent outdoors-data are well captured by skewed gamma distributions. Our model-based evaluation shows that in a heterogeneous population, Zika would cause a lower number of infections than in a more homogenous host population (up to 4-fold differences), but, at the same time, the epidemic would spread much faster. We estimated that in highly heterogeneous host populations the timing of the implementation of vector control measures is the major factor for limiting the number of Zika infections.<label>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE</label>Our findings highlight the need of considering host variability in exposure time for managing mosquito-borne infections and call for the revision of the triggers for vector control strategies, which should integrate mosquito density data and human outdoor activity patterns in specific areas. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 11 9 e0005851 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Marco Ajelli Imelda K Moise Tricia Caroline S G Hutchings Scott C Brown Naresh Kumar Neil F Johnson John C Beier Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
<label>BACKGROUND</label>Zika virus transmission dynamics in urban environments follow a complex spatiotemporal pattern that appears unpredictable and barely related to high mosquito density areas. In this context, human activity patterns likely have a major role in Zika transmission dynamics. This paper examines the effect of host variability in the amount of time spent outdoors on Zika epidemiology in an urban environment.<label>METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS</label>First, we performed a survey on time spent outdoors by residents of Miami-Dade County, Florida. Second, we analyzed both the survey and previously published national data on outdoors time in the U.S. to provide estimates of the distribution of the time spent outdoors. Third, we performed a computational modeling evaluation of Zika transmission dynamics, based on the time spent outdoors by each person. Our analysis reveals a strong heterogeneity of the host population in terms of time spent outdoors-data are well captured by skewed gamma distributions. Our model-based evaluation shows that in a heterogeneous population, Zika would cause a lower number of infections than in a more homogenous host population (up to 4-fold differences), but, at the same time, the epidemic would spread much faster. We estimated that in highly heterogeneous host populations the timing of the implementation of vector control measures is the major factor for limiting the number of Zika infections.<label>CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE</label>Our findings highlight the need of considering host variability in exposure time for managing mosquito-borne infections and call for the revision of the triggers for vector control strategies, which should integrate mosquito density data and human outdoor activity patterns in specific areas. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marco Ajelli Imelda K Moise Tricia Caroline S G Hutchings Scott C Brown Naresh Kumar Neil F Johnson John C Beier |
author_facet |
Marco Ajelli Imelda K Moise Tricia Caroline S G Hutchings Scott C Brown Naresh Kumar Neil F Johnson John C Beier |
author_sort |
Marco Ajelli |
title |
Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control. |
title_short |
Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control. |
title_full |
Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control. |
title_fullStr |
Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of Zika virus: Insights for epidemic control. |
title_sort |
host outdoor exposure variability affects the transmission and spread of zika virus: insights for epidemic control. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005851 https://doaj.org/article/2389ed5ed6064d9c9b83ae7e053ad3be |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 11, Iss 9, p e0005851 (2017) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC5598931?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0005851 https://doaj.org/article/2389ed5ed6064d9c9b83ae7e053ad3be |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0005851 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
11 |
container_issue |
9 |
container_start_page |
e0005851 |
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1766342794952048640 |