Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift
Most climatic and glaciological processes exhibit internal variability, which is omitted from many ice sheet model simulations. Prior studies have found that climatic variability can change ice sheet sensitivity to the long-term mean and trend in climate forcing. In this study, we use an ensemble of...
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2024
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024 https://doaj.org/article/23790fec0b864b0ab310a1adf5231e13 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:23790fec0b864b0ab310a1adf5231e13 2024-09-15T18:09:54+00:00 Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift A. A. Robel V. Verjans A. A. Ambelorun 2024-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024 https://doaj.org/article/23790fec0b864b0ab310a1adf5231e13 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2613/2024/tc-18-2613-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/23790fec0b864b0ab310a1adf5231e13 The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 2613-2623 (2024) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2024 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024 2024-08-05T17:49:18Z Most climatic and glaciological processes exhibit internal variability, which is omitted from many ice sheet model simulations. Prior studies have found that climatic variability can change ice sheet sensitivity to the long-term mean and trend in climate forcing. In this study, we use an ensemble of simulations with a stochastic large-scale ice sheet model to demonstrate that variability in frontal ablation of marine-terminating glaciers changes the mean state of the Greenland Ice Sheet through noise-induced drift. Conversely, stochastic variability in surface mass balance does not appear to cause noise-induced drift in these ensembles. We describe three potential causes for noise-induced drift identified in prior statistical physics literature: noise-induced bifurcations, multiplicative noise, and nonlinearities in noisy processes. Idealized simulations and Reynolds decomposition theory show that for marine ice sheets in particular, noise-induced bifurcations and nonlinearities in variable ice sheet processes are likely the cause of the noise-induced drift. We argue that the omnipresence of variability in climate and ice sheet systems means that the state of real-world ice sheets includes this tendency to drift. Thus, the lack of representation of such noise-induced drift in spin-up and transient ice sheet simulations is a potentially ubiquitous source of bias in ice sheet models. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles The Cryosphere 18 5 2613 2623 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 A. A. Robel V. Verjans A. A. Ambelorun Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Most climatic and glaciological processes exhibit internal variability, which is omitted from many ice sheet model simulations. Prior studies have found that climatic variability can change ice sheet sensitivity to the long-term mean and trend in climate forcing. In this study, we use an ensemble of simulations with a stochastic large-scale ice sheet model to demonstrate that variability in frontal ablation of marine-terminating glaciers changes the mean state of the Greenland Ice Sheet through noise-induced drift. Conversely, stochastic variability in surface mass balance does not appear to cause noise-induced drift in these ensembles. We describe three potential causes for noise-induced drift identified in prior statistical physics literature: noise-induced bifurcations, multiplicative noise, and nonlinearities in noisy processes. Idealized simulations and Reynolds decomposition theory show that for marine ice sheets in particular, noise-induced bifurcations and nonlinearities in variable ice sheet processes are likely the cause of the noise-induced drift. We argue that the omnipresence of variability in climate and ice sheet systems means that the state of real-world ice sheets includes this tendency to drift. Thus, the lack of representation of such noise-induced drift in spin-up and transient ice sheet simulations is a potentially ubiquitous source of bias in ice sheet models. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
A. A. Robel V. Verjans A. A. Ambelorun |
author_facet |
A. A. Robel V. Verjans A. A. Ambelorun |
author_sort |
A. A. Robel |
title |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_short |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_full |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_fullStr |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_full_unstemmed |
Biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
title_sort |
biases in ice sheet models from missing noise-induced drift |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024 https://doaj.org/article/23790fec0b864b0ab310a1adf5231e13 |
genre |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Greenland Ice Sheet The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 18, Pp 2613-2623 (2024) |
op_relation |
https://tc.copernicus.org/articles/18/2613/2024/tc-18-2613-2024.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024 1994-0416 1994-0424 https://doaj.org/article/23790fec0b864b0ab310a1adf5231e13 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-2613-2024 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
18 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
2613 |
op_container_end_page |
2623 |
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1810447505281777664 |