Three-months extended and seasonal forecast of sea surface temperature anomalies for thermodynamic climate prediction

Conservation of thermal energy applied to the upper mixed layer of the ocean is used to predict sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and their monthly changes for periods up to three months, and for seasonal prediction in the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. The conservation equation inc...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Authors: E.E. Villanueva, V.M. Mendoza, J. Adem
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Spanish
Published: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Geofísica 2000
Subjects:
Monthly and seasonal prediction
sea surface temperature
thermodynamic model
Geophysics. Cosmic physics
QC801-809
Pacific
North Atlantic
Online Access:https://doaj.org/article/235df337689140d1bffa508fc20ac95f
Description
Summary:Conservation of thermal energy applied to the upper mixed layer of the ocean is used to predict sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA) and their monthly changes for periods up to three months, and for seasonal prediction in the North Pacific and North Atlantic oceans. The conservation equation includes horizontal transport of heat by mean ocean currents and by horizontal turbulent eddies, as well as heating by short-and long-wave radiation, evaporation and sensible heat transmitted to the atmosphere by vertical turbulent transport. Computations for the period from June 1980 to May 1984 show that this model has some skill in predicting the large scale SSTA and monthly changes for periods as long as three months, and in predicting the seasonal SSTA.

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