Shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry
Using a global ocean biogeochemistry model, we examined three drivers of global ocean production C:N:P ratio: flexible phytoplankton stoichiometry, phytoplankton community composition, and regional production shifts. For a middle-of-the-road warming scenario (SSP2), the model predicts a substantial...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:22eb717823544067ac3c90100e39941f 2023-09-05T13:15:18+02:00 Shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry Katsumi Matsumoto Tatsuro Tanioka 2020-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4b0 https://doaj.org/article/22eb717823544067ac3c90100e39941f EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4b0 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc4b0 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/22eb717823544067ac3c90100e39941f Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 12, p 124027 (2020) ocean carbon cycle stoichiometry numerical model future projection biological production Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4b0 2023-08-13T00:37:14Z Using a global ocean biogeochemistry model, we examined three drivers of global ocean production C:N:P ratio: flexible phytoplankton stoichiometry, phytoplankton community composition, and regional production shifts. For a middle-of-the-road warming scenario (SSP2), the model predicts a substantial increase in the global export C:P ratio from 113:1 to 119:1 by the year 2100. The most important physiological driver of this stoichiometric change is the effect of the worldwide warming on cyanobacteria, followed by the effect of phosphate depletion on eukaryotes in the Southern Ocean. Also, there is a modest global shift in the phytoplankton community in favor of cyanobacteria at the expense of eukaryotes with a minimal effect on the global production stoichiometry. We find that shifts in the regional production, even in the absence of any change in phytoplankton stoichiometry or taxonomy, can change the global production C:N:P ratio. For example, enhancing the production in the polar waters, which typically have low C:N:P ratios, will have the effect of lowering the global ratio. In our model, the retreat of Antarctic sea ice has this very effect but is offset by production changes downstream and elsewhere. This study thus provides an understanding of how regional production changes can affect the global production C:N:P ratio. However, the current literature indicates substantial uncertainty in the future projections of regional production changes, so it is unclear at this time what their net effect is on the global production C:N:P ratio. Finally, our model predicts that the overall increase in the carbon content of organic matter due to flexible C:N:P ratio helps to stabilize carbon export in the face of reduced nutrient export (i.e. the decrease in C export is ~30% smaller than expected from the decrease in P export by 2100) but has a minimal effect on atmospheric CO _2 uptake (~1%). Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Southern Ocean Environmental Research Letters 15 12 124027 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
ocean carbon cycle stoichiometry numerical model future projection biological production Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
ocean carbon cycle stoichiometry numerical model future projection biological production Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Katsumi Matsumoto Tatsuro Tanioka Shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry |
topic_facet |
ocean carbon cycle stoichiometry numerical model future projection biological production Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Using a global ocean biogeochemistry model, we examined three drivers of global ocean production C:N:P ratio: flexible phytoplankton stoichiometry, phytoplankton community composition, and regional production shifts. For a middle-of-the-road warming scenario (SSP2), the model predicts a substantial increase in the global export C:P ratio from 113:1 to 119:1 by the year 2100. The most important physiological driver of this stoichiometric change is the effect of the worldwide warming on cyanobacteria, followed by the effect of phosphate depletion on eukaryotes in the Southern Ocean. Also, there is a modest global shift in the phytoplankton community in favor of cyanobacteria at the expense of eukaryotes with a minimal effect on the global production stoichiometry. We find that shifts in the regional production, even in the absence of any change in phytoplankton stoichiometry or taxonomy, can change the global production C:N:P ratio. For example, enhancing the production in the polar waters, which typically have low C:N:P ratios, will have the effect of lowering the global ratio. In our model, the retreat of Antarctic sea ice has this very effect but is offset by production changes downstream and elsewhere. This study thus provides an understanding of how regional production changes can affect the global production C:N:P ratio. However, the current literature indicates substantial uncertainty in the future projections of regional production changes, so it is unclear at this time what their net effect is on the global production C:N:P ratio. Finally, our model predicts that the overall increase in the carbon content of organic matter due to flexible C:N:P ratio helps to stabilize carbon export in the face of reduced nutrient export (i.e. the decrease in C export is ~30% smaller than expected from the decrease in P export by 2100) but has a minimal effect on atmospheric CO _2 uptake (~1%). |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Katsumi Matsumoto Tatsuro Tanioka |
author_facet |
Katsumi Matsumoto Tatsuro Tanioka |
author_sort |
Katsumi Matsumoto |
title |
Shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry |
title_short |
Shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry |
title_full |
Shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry |
title_fullStr |
Shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry |
title_full_unstemmed |
Shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry |
title_sort |
shifts in regional production as a driver of future global ocean production stoichiometry |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4b0 https://doaj.org/article/22eb717823544067ac3c90100e39941f |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 15, Iss 12, p 124027 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4b0 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abc4b0 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/22eb717823544067ac3c90100e39941f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abc4b0 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
15 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124027 |
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1776197107849363456 |