Sea-level rise in Denmark: paleo context, recent projections and policy implications

• Published in: GEUS Bulletin
• Main Authors: William Colgan, Hans Jørgen Henriksen, Ole Bennike, Sofia Ribeiro, Marie Keiding, Ida Karlsson Seidenfaden, Morten Graversgaard, Anne Gravsholt Busck, Mikkel Fruergaard, Michael Helt Knudsen, John Hopper, Torben Sonnenborg, Maria Rebekka Skjerbæk, Anders Anker Bjørk, Holger Steffen, Lev Tarasov, R. Steven Nerem, Kristian K. Kjeldsen
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland 2022
• Subjects: projection; denmark; coast; sea level; climate scenario; Geology; QE1-996.5; Geophysics. Cosmic physics; QC801-809; Antarctic; The Antarctic; West Antarctic Ice Sheet; Antarc*; Ice Sheet
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.34194/geusb.v49.8315; https://doaj.org/article/2277ba287d4c46d3b53d2a69c434e587

We present the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) sea-level projections for four Danish cities (Aarhus, Copenhagen, Esbjerg and Hirtshals) under the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) family of climate scenarios. These sea-level changes projected over the next century are up to an order of magnitude larger than those observed over the previous century. At these cities, year 2150 sea-level changes of between 29 and 55 cm are projected under the very low emissions scenario (SSP1-1.9), whilst changes of between 99 and 123 cm are projected under the very high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). These differences highlight the potentially significant impact of remaining opportunities for climate change mitigation. Due to this increase in mean sea level, the mean recurrence time between historically extreme events is expected to decrease. Under the very high emissions scenario, the historical 100-year storm flood event will become a 1- to 5-year event at most Danish harbours by 2100. There is considerable uncertainty associated with these sea-level projections, primarily driven by uncertainty in the future evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet and future sterodynamic changes in ocean volume. The AR6 characterises collapse of the West Antarctic ice sheet as a low-probability but high-impact event that could cause several metres of sea-level rise around Denmark by 2150. In climate adaptation policy, the scientific landscape is shifting fast. There has been a tremendous proliferation of diverse sea-level projections in recent years, with the most relevant planning target for Denmark increasing c. 50 cm in the past two decades. Translating sea-level rise projections into planning targets requires value judgments about acceptable sea-level risk that depend on local geography, planning timeline and climate pathway. This highlights the need for an overarching national sea-level adaptation plan to ensure municipal plans conform to risk and action standards.