Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice
Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been a hot research theme in the past decades. Usually, the tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provide considerable predictability sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) TC activity. Here, we emphasized that the Chukchi-Beaufort (C...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:2246ee8857b140db9803145ee3191c0f 2023-09-05T13:16:42+02:00 Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice Peng Zhang Zhiwei Wu Zhiwei Zhu Rui Jin 2022-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 https://doaj.org/article/2246ee8857b140db9803145ee3191c0f EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/2246ee8857b140db9803145ee3191c0f Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 12, p 124012 (2022) Arctic sea ice WNP TC formation frequency seasonal prediction Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2022 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 2023-08-13T00:36:54Z Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been a hot research theme in the past decades. Usually, the tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provide considerable predictability sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) TC activity. Here, we emphasized that the Chukchi-Beaufort (C-B) and Greenland (GL) sea ice variability is closely linked to the year-to-year variations of the early autumn WNP TC formation frequency (TCF). Observational and numerical evidence proved that the excessive C-B and GL sea ice sustains from August to the following early autumn and triggers the southeastward propagation of the Rossby wave trains originating from the Arctic across Western Eurasia (Okhotsk Sea) to the WNP. The resultant anomalous low pressure over WNP provides suitable environmental conditions for TC formation―the enhancement of the lower-level relative vorticity and water moisture, and the decrease of vertical wind shear. For the reduced sea ice, an opposite situation tends to emerge. The persistent combined sea ice signal makes it a physically meaningful precursor for TCF prediction. The cross-validated hindcast and independent forecast based on both the tropical SST and the Arctic sea ice precursors present that the TCF index is predicted with much higher correlation coefficients than those of the empirical models with only the tropical SST predictors. The results demonstrate that the Arctic sea ice truly promotes the seasonal prediction capability of the WNP TCF. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Chukchi Greenland okhotsk sea Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Greenland Okhotsk Pacific Environmental Research Letters 17 12 124012 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice WNP TC formation frequency seasonal prediction Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice WNP TC formation frequency seasonal prediction Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Peng Zhang Zhiwei Wu Zhiwei Zhu Rui Jin Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice WNP TC formation frequency seasonal prediction Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
Seasonal prediction of tropical cyclone (TC) activity has been a hot research theme in the past decades. Usually, the tropical sea surface temperatures (SSTs) provide considerable predictability sources for the western North Pacific (WNP) TC activity. Here, we emphasized that the Chukchi-Beaufort (C-B) and Greenland (GL) sea ice variability is closely linked to the year-to-year variations of the early autumn WNP TC formation frequency (TCF). Observational and numerical evidence proved that the excessive C-B and GL sea ice sustains from August to the following early autumn and triggers the southeastward propagation of the Rossby wave trains originating from the Arctic across Western Eurasia (Okhotsk Sea) to the WNP. The resultant anomalous low pressure over WNP provides suitable environmental conditions for TC formation―the enhancement of the lower-level relative vorticity and water moisture, and the decrease of vertical wind shear. For the reduced sea ice, an opposite situation tends to emerge. The persistent combined sea ice signal makes it a physically meaningful precursor for TCF prediction. The cross-validated hindcast and independent forecast based on both the tropical SST and the Arctic sea ice precursors present that the TCF index is predicted with much higher correlation coefficients than those of the empirical models with only the tropical SST predictors. The results demonstrate that the Arctic sea ice truly promotes the seasonal prediction capability of the WNP TCF. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Peng Zhang Zhiwei Wu Zhiwei Zhu Rui Jin |
author_facet |
Peng Zhang Zhiwei Wu Zhiwei Zhu Rui Jin |
author_sort |
Peng Zhang |
title |
Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
title_short |
Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
title_full |
Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
title_fullStr |
Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
title_full_unstemmed |
Promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western North Pacific: effect of Arctic sea ice |
title_sort |
promoting seasonal prediction capability of the early autumn tropical cyclone formation frequency over the western north pacific: effect of arctic sea ice |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 https://doaj.org/article/2246ee8857b140db9803145ee3191c0f |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland Okhotsk Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland Okhotsk Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Chukchi Greenland okhotsk sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Chukchi Greenland okhotsk sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 17, Iss 12, p 124012 (2022) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/2246ee8857b140db9803145ee3191c0f |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aca2c0 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
17 |
container_issue |
12 |
container_start_page |
124012 |
_version_ |
1776198183971454976 |