Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction
Twin 5-month seasonal forecast experiments are performed to predict the September 2018 mean and minimum ice extent using the fully coupled Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). In the control run, ensemble forecasts are initialized from the operational US Navy Global Ocean Forecasting Syst...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:219136e6ece240a99ce4de38bf9452ee 2023-05-15T13:29:34+02:00 Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction Richard Allard E. Joseph Metzger Neil Barton Li Li Nathan Kurtz Michael Phelps Deborah Franklin Ole Martin Smedstad Julia Crout Pamela Posey 2020-09-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2020.15 https://doaj.org/article/219136e6ece240a99ce4de38bf9452ee EN eng Cambridge University Press https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305520000154/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0260-3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5644 doi:10.1017/aog.2020.15 0260-3055 1727-5644 https://doaj.org/article/219136e6ece240a99ce4de38bf9452ee Annals of Glaciology, Vol 61, Pp 78-85 (2020) Coupled modeling system CryoSat-2 ice thickness sea ice extent time-lagged ensembles Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2020.15 2023-03-12T01:31:55Z Twin 5-month seasonal forecast experiments are performed to predict the September 2018 mean and minimum ice extent using the fully coupled Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). In the control run, ensemble forecasts are initialized from the operational US Navy Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) 3.1 but do not assimilate ice thickness data. Another set of forecasts are initialized from the same GOFS 3.1 fields but with sea ice thickness derived from CryoSat-2 (CS2). The Navy ESPC ensemble mean September 2018 minimum sea ice extent initialized with GOFS 3.1 ice thickness was over-predicted by 0.68 M km2 (5.27 M km2) vs the ensemble forecasts initialized with CS2 ice thickness that had an error of 0.40 M km2 (4.99 M km2), a 43% reduction in error. The September mean integrated ice edge error shows a 18% improvement for the Pan-Arctic with the CS2 data vs the control forecasts. Comparison against upward looking sonar ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea reveals a lower bias and RMSE with the CS2 forecasts at all three moorings. Ice concentration at these locations is also improved, but neither set of forecasts show ice free conditions as observed at moorings A and D. Article in Journal/Newspaper Annals of Glaciology Arctic Beaufort Sea Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Annals of Glaciology 61 82 78 85 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Coupled modeling system CryoSat-2 ice thickness sea ice extent time-lagged ensembles Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
spellingShingle |
Coupled modeling system CryoSat-2 ice thickness sea ice extent time-lagged ensembles Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Richard Allard E. Joseph Metzger Neil Barton Li Li Nathan Kurtz Michael Phelps Deborah Franklin Ole Martin Smedstad Julia Crout Pamela Posey Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction |
topic_facet |
Coupled modeling system CryoSat-2 ice thickness sea ice extent time-lagged ensembles Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 |
description |
Twin 5-month seasonal forecast experiments are performed to predict the September 2018 mean and minimum ice extent using the fully coupled Navy Earth System Prediction Capability (ESPC). In the control run, ensemble forecasts are initialized from the operational US Navy Global Ocean Forecasting System (GOFS) 3.1 but do not assimilate ice thickness data. Another set of forecasts are initialized from the same GOFS 3.1 fields but with sea ice thickness derived from CryoSat-2 (CS2). The Navy ESPC ensemble mean September 2018 minimum sea ice extent initialized with GOFS 3.1 ice thickness was over-predicted by 0.68 M km2 (5.27 M km2) vs the ensemble forecasts initialized with CS2 ice thickness that had an error of 0.40 M km2 (4.99 M km2), a 43% reduction in error. The September mean integrated ice edge error shows a 18% improvement for the Pan-Arctic with the CS2 data vs the control forecasts. Comparison against upward looking sonar ice thickness in the Beaufort Sea reveals a lower bias and RMSE with the CS2 forecasts at all three moorings. Ice concentration at these locations is also improved, but neither set of forecasts show ice free conditions as observed at moorings A and D. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Richard Allard E. Joseph Metzger Neil Barton Li Li Nathan Kurtz Michael Phelps Deborah Franklin Ole Martin Smedstad Julia Crout Pamela Posey |
author_facet |
Richard Allard E. Joseph Metzger Neil Barton Li Li Nathan Kurtz Michael Phelps Deborah Franklin Ole Martin Smedstad Julia Crout Pamela Posey |
author_sort |
Richard Allard |
title |
Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction |
title_short |
Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction |
title_full |
Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction |
title_fullStr |
Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction |
title_full_unstemmed |
Analyzing the impact of CryoSat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal Arctic Sea Ice prediction |
title_sort |
analyzing the impact of cryosat-2 ice thickness initialization on seasonal arctic sea ice prediction |
publisher |
Cambridge University Press |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2020.15 https://doaj.org/article/219136e6ece240a99ce4de38bf9452ee |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Annals of Glaciology Arctic Beaufort Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Annals of Glaciology Arctic Beaufort Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Annals of Glaciology, Vol 61, Pp 78-85 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S0260305520000154/type/journal_article https://doaj.org/toc/0260-3055 https://doaj.org/toc/1727-5644 doi:10.1017/aog.2020.15 0260-3055 1727-5644 https://doaj.org/article/219136e6ece240a99ce4de38bf9452ee |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2020.15 |
container_title |
Annals of Glaciology |
container_volume |
61 |
container_issue |
82 |
container_start_page |
78 |
op_container_end_page |
85 |
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1766001238872162304 |