Artificial intelligent systems optimized by metaheuristic algorithms and teleconnection indices for rainfall modeling: The case of a humid region in the mediterranean basin

• Published in: Heliyon
• Main Authors: Bilel Zerouali, Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos, Camilo Allyson Simões de Farias, Raul Souza Muniz, Salah Difi, Zaki Abda, Mohamed Chettih, Salim Heddam, Samy A. Anwar, Ahmed Elbeltagi
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Elsevier 2023
• Subjects: Precipitation; Machine learning; Multilayer perceptron; Firefly algorithm; Bat algorithm; Science (General); Q1-390; Social sciences (General); H1-99; Soi; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15355; https://doaj.org/article/20eadc6932dc4050a45683f0e25f804c

Characterized by their high spatiotemporal variability, rainfalls are difficult to predict, especially under climate change. This study proposes a multilayer perceptron (MLP) network optimized by Genetic Algorithm (GA), Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), Firefly Algorithm (FFA), and Teleconnection Pattern Indices - such as North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Southern Oscillations (SOI), Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO), and Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) - to model monthly rainfalls at the Sebaou River basin (Northern Algeria). Afterward, we compared the best-optimized MLP to the application of the Extreme Learning Machine optimized by the Bat algorithm (Bat-ELM). Assessment of the various input combinations revealed that the NAO index was the most influential parameter in improving the modeling accuracy. The results indicated that the MLP-FFA model was superior to MLP-GA and MLP-PSO for the testing phase, presenting RMSE values equal to 33.36, 30.50, and 29.92 mm, respectively. The comparison between the best MLP model and Bat-ELM revealed the high performance of Bat-ELM for rainfall modeling at the Sebaou River basin, with RMSE reducing from 29.92 to 11.89 mm and NSE value from 0.902 to 0.985 during the testing phase. This study shows that incorporating the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) as a predictor improved the accuracy of artificial intelligence systems optimized by metaheuristic algorithms, specifically Bat-ELM, for rainfall modeling tasks such as filling in missing data of rainfall time series.