Assessment of Arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine CMIP6 climate models
ABSTRACTThe observed retreat and anticipated further decline in Arctic sea ice holds strong climate, environmental, and societal implications. In predicting climate evolution, ensembles of coupled climate models have demonstrated appreciable accuracy in simulating sea-ice area trends throughout the...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:20823ce620ef4cbfae285f9717f17f25 2024-09-15T17:49:03+00:00 Assessment of Arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine CMIP6 climate models Martin Henke Felício Cassalho Tyler Miesse Celso M. Ferreira Jinlun Zhang Thomas M. Ravens 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2023.2271592 https://doaj.org/article/20823ce620ef4cbfae285f9717f17f25 EN eng Taylor & Francis Group https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15230430.2023.2271592 https://doaj.org/toc/1523-0430 https://doaj.org/toc/1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2023.2271592 1938-4246 1523-0430 https://doaj.org/article/20823ce620ef4cbfae285f9717f17f25 Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 55, Iss 1 (2023) Climate model assessment sea ice Arctic Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2023.2271592 2024-08-05T17:49:40Z ABSTRACTThe observed retreat and anticipated further decline in Arctic sea ice holds strong climate, environmental, and societal implications. In predicting climate evolution, ensembles of coupled climate models have demonstrated appreciable accuracy in simulating sea-ice area trends throughout the historical period, yet individual climate models still show significant differences in accurately representing the sea-ice thickness distribution. To better understand individual model performance in sea-ice simulation, nine climate models were evaluated in comparison with Arctic satellite and reanalysis-derived sea-ice thickness data, sea-ice area records, and atmospheric reanalysis data of surface wind and air temperature. This assessment found that the simulated spatial distribution of historical sea-ice thickness varies greatly between models and that several key limitations persist among models. Primarily, most models do not capture the thickest regimes of multiyear ice present in the Wandel and Lincoln seas; those that do often possess erroneous positive bias in other regions such as the Laptev Sea or along the Eurasian Arctic Shelf. This analysis provides enhanced understanding of individual model historical simulation performance, which is critical in informing the selection of coupled climate model projections for dependent future modeling efforts. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic laptev Laptev Sea Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research 55 1 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Climate model assessment sea ice Arctic Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
spellingShingle |
Climate model assessment sea ice Arctic Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 Martin Henke Felício Cassalho Tyler Miesse Celso M. Ferreira Jinlun Zhang Thomas M. Ravens Assessment of Arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine CMIP6 climate models |
topic_facet |
Climate model assessment sea ice Arctic Environmental sciences GE1-350 Ecology QH540-549.5 |
description |
ABSTRACTThe observed retreat and anticipated further decline in Arctic sea ice holds strong climate, environmental, and societal implications. In predicting climate evolution, ensembles of coupled climate models have demonstrated appreciable accuracy in simulating sea-ice area trends throughout the historical period, yet individual climate models still show significant differences in accurately representing the sea-ice thickness distribution. To better understand individual model performance in sea-ice simulation, nine climate models were evaluated in comparison with Arctic satellite and reanalysis-derived sea-ice thickness data, sea-ice area records, and atmospheric reanalysis data of surface wind and air temperature. This assessment found that the simulated spatial distribution of historical sea-ice thickness varies greatly between models and that several key limitations persist among models. Primarily, most models do not capture the thickest regimes of multiyear ice present in the Wandel and Lincoln seas; those that do often possess erroneous positive bias in other regions such as the Laptev Sea or along the Eurasian Arctic Shelf. This analysis provides enhanced understanding of individual model historical simulation performance, which is critical in informing the selection of coupled climate model projections for dependent future modeling efforts. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Martin Henke Felício Cassalho Tyler Miesse Celso M. Ferreira Jinlun Zhang Thomas M. Ravens |
author_facet |
Martin Henke Felício Cassalho Tyler Miesse Celso M. Ferreira Jinlun Zhang Thomas M. Ravens |
author_sort |
Martin Henke |
title |
Assessment of Arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine CMIP6 climate models |
title_short |
Assessment of Arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine CMIP6 climate models |
title_full |
Assessment of Arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine CMIP6 climate models |
title_fullStr |
Assessment of Arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine CMIP6 climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessment of Arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine CMIP6 climate models |
title_sort |
assessment of arctic sea ice and surface climate conditions in nine cmip6 climate models |
publisher |
Taylor & Francis Group |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2023.2271592 https://doaj.org/article/20823ce620ef4cbfae285f9717f17f25 |
genre |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic laptev Laptev Sea Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarctic and Alpine Research Arctic laptev Laptev Sea Sea ice |
op_source |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research, Vol 55, Iss 1 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/15230430.2023.2271592 https://doaj.org/toc/1523-0430 https://doaj.org/toc/1938-4246 doi:10.1080/15230430.2023.2271592 1938-4246 1523-0430 https://doaj.org/article/20823ce620ef4cbfae285f9717f17f25 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/15230430.2023.2271592 |
container_title |
Arctic, Antarctic, and Alpine Research |
container_volume |
55 |
container_issue |
1 |
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1810290748740861952 |