Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil.
INTRODUCTION:Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease ri...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1fd2f48acebc4274a786b7b5a46e5d26 2023-05-15T15:05:46+02:00 Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. Joseph A Lewnard Lara Jirmanus Nivison Nery Júnior Paulo R Machado Marshall J Glesby Albert I Ko Edgar M Carvalho Albert Schriefer Daniel M Weinberger 2014-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 https://doaj.org/article/1fd2f48acebc4274a786b7b5a46e5d26 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4214672?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 https://doaj.org/article/1fd2f48acebc4274a786b7b5a46e5d26 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 10, p e3283 (2014) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 2022-12-31T03:28:56Z INTRODUCTION:Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. SIGNIFICANCE:These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 8 10 e3283 |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Joseph A Lewnard Lara Jirmanus Nivison Nery Júnior Paulo R Machado Marshall J Glesby Albert I Ko Edgar M Carvalho Albert Schriefer Daniel M Weinberger Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
INTRODUCTION:Cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) is a vector-borne disease of increasing importance in northeastern Brazil. It is known that sandflies, which spread the causative parasites, have weather-dependent population dynamics. Routinely-gathered weather data may be useful for anticipating disease risk and planning interventions. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS:We fit time series models using meteorological covariates to predict CL cases in a rural region of Bahía, Brazil from 1994 to 2004. We used the models to forecast CL cases for the period 2005 to 2008. Models accounting for meteorological predictors reduced mean squared error in one, two, and three month-ahead forecasts by up to 16% relative to forecasts from a null model accounting only for temporal autocorrelation. SIGNIFICANCE:These outcomes suggest CL risk in northeastern Brazil might be partially dependent on weather. Responses to forecasted CL epidemics may include bolstering clinical capacity and disease surveillance in at-risk areas. Ecological mechanisms by which weather influences CL risk merit future research attention as public health intervention targets. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Joseph A Lewnard Lara Jirmanus Nivison Nery Júnior Paulo R Machado Marshall J Glesby Albert I Ko Edgar M Carvalho Albert Schriefer Daniel M Weinberger |
author_facet |
Joseph A Lewnard Lara Jirmanus Nivison Nery Júnior Paulo R Machado Marshall J Glesby Albert I Ko Edgar M Carvalho Albert Schriefer Daniel M Weinberger |
author_sort |
Joseph A Lewnard |
title |
Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. |
title_short |
Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. |
title_full |
Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. |
title_fullStr |
Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in Northeast Brazil. |
title_sort |
forecasting temporal dynamics of cutaneous leishmaniasis in northeast brazil. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 https://doaj.org/article/1fd2f48acebc4274a786b7b5a46e5d26 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 10, p e3283 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4214672?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 https://doaj.org/article/1fd2f48acebc4274a786b7b5a46e5d26 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0003283 |
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PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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8 |
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10 |
container_start_page |
e3283 |
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