Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones
An observed poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) achieved their lifetime-maximum intensities (LMIs) was previously explained by changes in the mean meridional environments favorable to storm development linked to tropical expansion and anthropogenic warming. We...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1f56f03fdd2c4cc2b70ea78c3332bf0e 2023-09-05T13:21:36+02:00 Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones Il-Ju Moon Sung-Hun Kim Phil Klotzbach Johnny C L Chan 2015-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 https://doaj.org/article/1f56f03fdd2c4cc2b70ea78c3332bf0e EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/1f56f03fdd2c4cc2b70ea78c3332bf0e Environmental Research Letters, Vol 10, Iss 10, p 104004 (2015) tropical cyclone poleward migration maximum intensity location frequency change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 2023-08-13T00:37:50Z An observed poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) achieved their lifetime-maximum intensities (LMIs) was previously explained by changes in the mean meridional environments favorable to storm development linked to tropical expansion and anthropogenic warming. We show that the poleward migration is greatly influenced by basin-to-basin changes in TC frequency associated with multi-decadal variability, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The contribution of the frequency changes to the poleward migration is comparable to that of the mean meridional environmental changes. A statistically significant global poleward trend can be identified simply from the frequency changes in each basin. An opposite trend exists in the frequency variations over the past 30 years between the North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific where climatological mean latitudes of LMI are high (26.1°N) and low (16.5°N), respectively, which is the key factor in driving the frequency contribution. The strong roles of the interbasin frequency changes in the poleward migration also suggest that if the phase of multidecadal variability in the NH is reversed, as found in earlier TC records, the poleward trend could be changed to an opposite, equatorward, trend in the future. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Pacific Environmental Research Letters 10 10 104004 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
tropical cyclone poleward migration maximum intensity location frequency change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
tropical cyclone poleward migration maximum intensity location frequency change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Il-Ju Moon Sung-Hun Kim Phil Klotzbach Johnny C L Chan Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
topic_facet |
tropical cyclone poleward migration maximum intensity location frequency change Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
An observed poleward migration in the average latitude at which tropical cyclones (TCs) achieved their lifetime-maximum intensities (LMIs) was previously explained by changes in the mean meridional environments favorable to storm development linked to tropical expansion and anthropogenic warming. We show that the poleward migration is greatly influenced by basin-to-basin changes in TC frequency associated with multi-decadal variability, particularly for the Northern Hemisphere (NH). The contribution of the frequency changes to the poleward migration is comparable to that of the mean meridional environmental changes. A statistically significant global poleward trend can be identified simply from the frequency changes in each basin. An opposite trend exists in the frequency variations over the past 30 years between the North Atlantic and the eastern North Pacific where climatological mean latitudes of LMI are high (26.1°N) and low (16.5°N), respectively, which is the key factor in driving the frequency contribution. The strong roles of the interbasin frequency changes in the poleward migration also suggest that if the phase of multidecadal variability in the NH is reversed, as found in earlier TC records, the poleward trend could be changed to an opposite, equatorward, trend in the future. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Il-Ju Moon Sung-Hun Kim Phil Klotzbach Johnny C L Chan |
author_facet |
Il-Ju Moon Sung-Hun Kim Phil Klotzbach Johnny C L Chan |
author_sort |
Il-Ju Moon |
title |
Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
title_short |
Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
title_full |
Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
title_fullStr |
Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
title_full_unstemmed |
Roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
title_sort |
roles of interbasin frequency changes in the poleward shifts of the maximum intensity location of tropical cyclones |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 https://doaj.org/article/1f56f03fdd2c4cc2b70ea78c3332bf0e |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 10, Iss 10, p 104004 (2015) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/1f56f03fdd2c4cc2b70ea78c3332bf0e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104004 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
10 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
104004 |
_version_ |
1776202189933379584 |