Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp).
BACKGROUND:A relatively simple life history allows us to derive an expression for the extinction probability of populations of tsetse, vectors of African sleeping sickness. We present the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability, to offer key insights into factors affecting...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1f2dd5753d9a4b22942b631775654229 2023-05-15T15:09:39+02:00 Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp). Elisha B Are John W Hargrove 2020-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854 https://doaj.org/article/1f2dd5753d9a4b22942b631775654229 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854 https://doaj.org/article/1f2dd5753d9a4b22942b631775654229 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 5, p e0007854 (2020) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854 2022-12-31T13:48:05Z BACKGROUND:A relatively simple life history allows us to derive an expression for the extinction probability of populations of tsetse, vectors of African sleeping sickness. We present the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability, to offer key insights into factors affecting the control or eradication of tsetse populations. METHODS:We represent tsetse population growth as a branching process, and derive closed form estimates of population extinction from that model. Statistical and mathematical techniques are used to analyse the uncertainties in estimating extinction probability, and the sensitivity of the extinction probability to changes in input parameters representing the natural life history and vital dynamics of tsetse populations. RESULTS:For fixed values of input parameters, the sensitivity of extinction probability depends on the baseline parameter values. Extinction probability is most sensitive to the probability that a female is inseminated by a fertile male when daily pupal mortality is low, whereas the extinction probability is most sensitive to daily mortality rate for adult females when daily pupal mortality, and extinction probabilities, are high. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis show that daily mortality rate for adult females has the highest impact on the extinction probability. CONCLUSIONS:The high correlation between extinction probability and daily female adult mortality gives a strong argument that control techniques which increase daily female adult mortality may be the single most effective means of ensuring eradication of tsetse population. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 5 e0007854 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Elisha B Are John W Hargrove Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp). |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
BACKGROUND:A relatively simple life history allows us to derive an expression for the extinction probability of populations of tsetse, vectors of African sleeping sickness. We present the uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of the extinction probability, to offer key insights into factors affecting the control or eradication of tsetse populations. METHODS:We represent tsetse population growth as a branching process, and derive closed form estimates of population extinction from that model. Statistical and mathematical techniques are used to analyse the uncertainties in estimating extinction probability, and the sensitivity of the extinction probability to changes in input parameters representing the natural life history and vital dynamics of tsetse populations. RESULTS:For fixed values of input parameters, the sensitivity of extinction probability depends on the baseline parameter values. Extinction probability is most sensitive to the probability that a female is inseminated by a fertile male when daily pupal mortality is low, whereas the extinction probability is most sensitive to daily mortality rate for adult females when daily pupal mortality, and extinction probabilities, are high. Global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis show that daily mortality rate for adult females has the highest impact on the extinction probability. CONCLUSIONS:The high correlation between extinction probability and daily female adult mortality gives a strong argument that control techniques which increase daily female adult mortality may be the single most effective means of ensuring eradication of tsetse population. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Elisha B Are John W Hargrove |
author_facet |
Elisha B Are John W Hargrove |
author_sort |
Elisha B Are |
title |
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp). |
title_short |
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp). |
title_full |
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp). |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp). |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (Glossina spp). |
title_sort |
uncertainty and sensitivity analyses of extinction probabilities suggest that adult female mortality is the weakest link for populations of tsetse (glossina spp). |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854 https://doaj.org/article/1f2dd5753d9a4b22942b631775654229 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 5, p e0007854 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854 https://doaj.org/article/1f2dd5753d9a4b22942b631775654229 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007854 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
e0007854 |
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