Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change

There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research...

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Main Authors: John A. Church, Jonathan M. Gregory, Neil J. White, Skye M. Platten, Jerry X. Mitrovica
Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
Language:English
Published: The Oceanography Society 2011
Subjects:
Online Access:https://doaj.org/article/1f20b126efc14470bab7cdaae25d878c
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spelling ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1f20b126efc14470bab7cdaae25d878c 2023-05-15T13:33:53+02:00 Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change John A. Church Jonathan M. Gregory Neil J. White Skye M. Platten Jerry X. Mitrovica 2011-06-01T00:00:00Z https://doaj.org/article/1f20b126efc14470bab7cdaae25d878c EN eng The Oceanography Society http://tos.org/oceanography/archive/24-2_church.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1042-8275 1042-8275 https://doaj.org/article/1f20b126efc14470bab7cdaae25d878c Oceanography, Vol 24, Iss 2, Pp 130-143 (2011) sea level IPCC assessments ice sheet models Oceanography GC1-1581 article 2011 ftdoajarticles 2022-12-31T06:56:58Z There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of AR4, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth’s gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Greenland
institution Open Polar
collection Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles
op_collection_id ftdoajarticles
language English
topic sea level
IPCC assessments
ice sheet models
Oceanography
GC1-1581
spellingShingle sea level
IPCC assessments
ice sheet models
Oceanography
GC1-1581
John A. Church
Jonathan M. Gregory
Neil J. White
Skye M. Platten
Jerry X. Mitrovica
Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change
topic_facet sea level
IPCC assessments
ice sheet models
Oceanography
GC1-1581
description There is intense scientific and public interest in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projections of sea level for the twenty-first century and beyond. The Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) projections, obtained by applying standard methods to the results of the World Climate Research Programme Coupled Model Experiment, includes estimates of ocean thermal expansion, the melting of glaciers and ice caps (G&ICs), increased melting of the Greenland Ice Sheet, and increased precipitation over Greenland and Antarctica, partially offsetting other contributions. AR4 recognized the potential for a rapid dynamic ice sheet response but robust methods for quantifying it were not available. Illustrative scenarios suggested additional sea level rise on the order of 10 to 20 cm or more, giving a wide range in the global averaged projections of about 20 to 80 cm by 2100. Currently, sea level is rising at a rate near the upper end of these projections. Since publication of AR4, biases in historical ocean temperature observations have been identified and significantly reduced, resulting in improved estimates of ocean thermal expansion. Models that include all climate forcings are in good agreement with these improved observations and indicate the importance of stratospheric aerosol loadings from volcanic eruptions. Estimates of the volumes of G&ICs and their contributions to sea level rise have improved. Results from recent (but possibly incomplete) efforts to develop improved ice sheet models should be available for the 2013 IPCC projections. Improved understanding of sea level rise is paving the way for using observations to constrain projections. Understanding of the regional variations in sea level change as a result of changes in ocean properties, wind-stress patterns, and heat and freshwater inputs into the ocean is improving. Recently, estimates of sea level changes resulting from changes in Earth’s gravitational field and the solid Earth response to changes in surface loading have been included in ...
format Article in Journal/Newspaper
author John A. Church
Jonathan M. Gregory
Neil J. White
Skye M. Platten
Jerry X. Mitrovica
author_facet John A. Church
Jonathan M. Gregory
Neil J. White
Skye M. Platten
Jerry X. Mitrovica
author_sort John A. Church
title Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change
title_short Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change
title_full Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change
title_fullStr Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change
title_full_unstemmed Understanding and Projecting Sea Level Change
title_sort understanding and projecting sea level change
publisher The Oceanography Society
publishDate 2011
url https://doaj.org/article/1f20b126efc14470bab7cdaae25d878c
geographic Greenland
geographic_facet Greenland
genre Antarc*
Antarctica
Greenland
Ice Sheet
genre_facet Antarc*
Antarctica
Greenland
Ice Sheet
op_source Oceanography, Vol 24, Iss 2, Pp 130-143 (2011)
op_relation http://tos.org/oceanography/archive/24-2_church.pdf
https://doaj.org/toc/1042-8275
1042-8275
https://doaj.org/article/1f20b126efc14470bab7cdaae25d878c
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