Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model
The prediction skill of Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the decadal experiments with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1) is assessed. As compared with the observations and historical experiments, the contribution of initialization for climate model to predict the seas...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1da2e3b18a864c3d8e7924150134724e 2023-05-15T14:52:28+02:00 Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model Li-Quan WU Qing-Quan LI Yi-Hui DING Li-Juan WANG Xiao-Ge XIN Min WEI 2018-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.001 https://doaj.org/article/1da2e3b18a864c3d8e7924150134724e EN eng KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927818300819 https://doaj.org/toc/1674-9278 1674-9278 doi:10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.001 https://doaj.org/article/1da2e3b18a864c3d8e7924150134724e Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol 9, Iss 4, Pp 209-217 (2018) Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 article 2018 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.001 2022-12-31T05:25:05Z The prediction skill of Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the decadal experiments with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1) is assessed. As compared with the observations and historical experiments, the contribution of initialization for climate model to predict the seasonal scale AO and its interannual variations is estimated. Results show that the spatial correlation coefficient of AO mode simulated by the decadal experiment is higher than that in the historical experiment. The two groups of experiments reasonably reproduce the characteristics that AO indices are the strongest in winter and the weakest in summer. Compared with historical experiments, the correlation coefficient of the monthly and winter AO indices are higher in the decadal experiments. In particular, the correlation coefficient of monthly AO index between decadal hindcast and observation reached 0.1 significant level. Furthermore, the periodicity of the monthly and spring AO indices are achieved only in the decadal experiments. Therefore, the initial state of model is initialized by using sea temperature data may help to improve the prediction skill of AO in the decadal prediction experiments to some extent. Keywords: BCC_CSM1.1, Climate model, Decadal, Arctic oscillation, Hindcast Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Advances in Climate Change Research 9 4 209 217 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
spellingShingle |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 Li-Quan WU Qing-Quan LI Yi-Hui DING Li-Juan WANG Xiao-Ge XIN Min WEI Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model |
topic_facet |
Meteorology. Climatology QC851-999 Social sciences (General) H1-99 |
description |
The prediction skill of Arctic Oscillation (AO) in the decadal experiments with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model version 1.1 (BCC_CSM1.1) is assessed. As compared with the observations and historical experiments, the contribution of initialization for climate model to predict the seasonal scale AO and its interannual variations is estimated. Results show that the spatial correlation coefficient of AO mode simulated by the decadal experiment is higher than that in the historical experiment. The two groups of experiments reasonably reproduce the characteristics that AO indices are the strongest in winter and the weakest in summer. Compared with historical experiments, the correlation coefficient of the monthly and winter AO indices are higher in the decadal experiments. In particular, the correlation coefficient of monthly AO index between decadal hindcast and observation reached 0.1 significant level. Furthermore, the periodicity of the monthly and spring AO indices are achieved only in the decadal experiments. Therefore, the initial state of model is initialized by using sea temperature data may help to improve the prediction skill of AO in the decadal prediction experiments to some extent. Keywords: BCC_CSM1.1, Climate model, Decadal, Arctic oscillation, Hindcast |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Li-Quan WU Qing-Quan LI Yi-Hui DING Li-Juan WANG Xiao-Ge XIN Min WEI |
author_facet |
Li-Quan WU Qing-Quan LI Yi-Hui DING Li-Juan WANG Xiao-Ge XIN Min WEI |
author_sort |
Li-Quan WU |
title |
Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model |
title_short |
Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model |
title_full |
Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model |
title_fullStr |
Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model |
title_full_unstemmed |
Preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by the BCC_CSM1.1 climate model |
title_sort |
preliminary assessment on the hindcast skill of the arctic oscillation with decadal experiment by the bcc_csm1.1 climate model |
publisher |
KeAi Communications Co., Ltd. |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.001 https://doaj.org/article/1da2e3b18a864c3d8e7924150134724e |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
Advances in Climate Change Research, Vol 9, Iss 4, Pp 209-217 (2018) |
op_relation |
http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674927818300819 https://doaj.org/toc/1674-9278 1674-9278 doi:10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.001 https://doaj.org/article/1da2e3b18a864c3d8e7924150134724e |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2018.12.001 |
container_title |
Advances in Climate Change Research |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
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209 |
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217 |
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1766323701008039936 |