Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss
Climate model projections are often aggregated into multi-model averages of all models participating in an intercomparison project, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The "multi-model" approach provides a sensitivity test to the models' structural choices and im...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1d2cbfa850ca41e290fd5b42247cff57 2023-05-15T13:40:39+02:00 Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss G. Durand F. Pattyn 2015-11-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015 https://doaj.org/article/1d2cbfa850ca41e290fd5b42247cff57 EN eng Copernicus Publications http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2043/2015/tc-9-2043-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015 https://doaj.org/article/1d2cbfa850ca41e290fd5b42247cff57 The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 2043-2055 (2015) Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 article 2015 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015 2022-12-31T14:38:25Z Climate model projections are often aggregated into multi-model averages of all models participating in an intercomparison project, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The "multi-model" approach provides a sensitivity test to the models' structural choices and implicitly assumes that multiple models provide additional and more reliable information than a single model, with higher confidence being placed on results that are common to an ensemble. A first initiative of the ice sheet modeling community, SeaRISE, provided such multi-model average projections of polar ice sheets' contribution to sea-level rise. The SeaRISE Antarctic numerical experiments aggregated results from all models devoid of a priori selection, based on the capacity of such models to represent key ice-dynamical processes. Here, using the experimental setup proposed in SeaRISE, we demonstrate that correctly representing grounding line dynamics is essential to infer future Antarctic mass change. We further illustrate the significant impact on the ensemble mean and deviation of adding one model with a known bias in its ability of modeling grounding line dynamics. We show that this biased model can hardly be identified from the ensemble only based on its estimation of volume change, as ad hoc and untrustworthy parametrizations can force any modeled grounding line to retreat. However, tools are available to test parts of the response of marine ice sheet models to perturbations of climatic and/or oceanic origin (MISMIP, MISMIP3d). Based on recent projections of Pine Island Glacier mass loss, we further show that excluding ice sheet models that do not pass the MISMIP benchmarks decreases the mean contribution and standard deviation of the multi-model ensemble projection by an order of magnitude for that particular drainage basin. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Antarctic Pine Island Glacier ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) The Cryosphere 9 6 2043 2055 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
spellingShingle |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 G. Durand F. Pattyn Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss |
topic_facet |
Environmental sciences GE1-350 Geology QE1-996.5 |
description |
Climate model projections are often aggregated into multi-model averages of all models participating in an intercomparison project, such as the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP). The "multi-model" approach provides a sensitivity test to the models' structural choices and implicitly assumes that multiple models provide additional and more reliable information than a single model, with higher confidence being placed on results that are common to an ensemble. A first initiative of the ice sheet modeling community, SeaRISE, provided such multi-model average projections of polar ice sheets' contribution to sea-level rise. The SeaRISE Antarctic numerical experiments aggregated results from all models devoid of a priori selection, based on the capacity of such models to represent key ice-dynamical processes. Here, using the experimental setup proposed in SeaRISE, we demonstrate that correctly representing grounding line dynamics is essential to infer future Antarctic mass change. We further illustrate the significant impact on the ensemble mean and deviation of adding one model with a known bias in its ability of modeling grounding line dynamics. We show that this biased model can hardly be identified from the ensemble only based on its estimation of volume change, as ad hoc and untrustworthy parametrizations can force any modeled grounding line to retreat. However, tools are available to test parts of the response of marine ice sheet models to perturbations of climatic and/or oceanic origin (MISMIP, MISMIP3d). Based on recent projections of Pine Island Glacier mass loss, we further show that excluding ice sheet models that do not pass the MISMIP benchmarks decreases the mean contribution and standard deviation of the multi-model ensemble projection by an order of magnitude for that particular drainage basin. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
G. Durand F. Pattyn |
author_facet |
G. Durand F. Pattyn |
author_sort |
G. Durand |
title |
Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss |
title_short |
Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss |
title_full |
Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss |
title_fullStr |
Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reducing uncertainties in projections of Antarctic ice mass loss |
title_sort |
reducing uncertainties in projections of antarctic ice mass loss |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015 https://doaj.org/article/1d2cbfa850ca41e290fd5b42247cff57 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-101.000,-101.000,-75.000,-75.000) |
geographic |
Antarctic Pine Island Glacier |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Pine Island Glacier |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Pine Island Glacier The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol 9, Iss 6, Pp 2043-2055 (2015) |
op_relation |
http://www.the-cryosphere.net/9/2043/2015/tc-9-2043-2015.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0416 https://doaj.org/toc/1994-0424 1994-0416 1994-0424 doi:10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015 https://doaj.org/article/1d2cbfa850ca41e290fd5b42247cff57 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-2043-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
2043 |
op_container_end_page |
2055 |
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1766137944959090688 |