A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.
Introduction Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionabl...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1c08ee27b7d3461ba6b4f30cad580c98 2023-05-15T15:15:45+02:00 A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. Pei-Ying Kobres Jean-Paul Chretien Michael A Johansson Jeffrey J Morgan Pai-Yei Whung Harshini Mukundan Sara Y Del Valle Brett M Forshey Talia M Quandelacy Matthew Biggerstaff Cecile Viboud Simon Pollett 2019-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007451 https://doaj.org/article/1c08ee27b7d3461ba6b4f30cad580c98 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007451 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007451 https://doaj.org/article/1c08ee27b7d3461ba6b4f30cad580c98 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 10, p e0007451 (2019) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2019 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007451 2022-12-31T05:07:34Z Introduction Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was. Methods To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers. Results 2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Barré ENVELOPE(-68.550,-68.550,-67.500,-67.500) Prisma ENVELOPE(-58.767,-58.767,-69.200,-69.200) PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 13 10 e0007451 |
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Open Polar |
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Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
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ftdoajarticles |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Pei-Ying Kobres Jean-Paul Chretien Michael A Johansson Jeffrey J Morgan Pai-Yei Whung Harshini Mukundan Sara Y Del Valle Brett M Forshey Talia M Quandelacy Matthew Biggerstaff Cecile Viboud Simon Pollett A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Introduction Epidemic forecasting and prediction tools have the potential to provide actionable information in the midst of emerging epidemics. While numerous predictive studies were published during the 2016-2017 Zika Virus (ZIKV) pandemic, it remains unknown how timely, reproducible, and actionable the information produced by these studies was. Methods To improve the functional use of mathematical modeling in support of future infectious disease outbreaks, we conducted a systematic review of all ZIKV prediction studies published during the recent ZIKV pandemic using the PRISMA guidelines. Using MEDLINE, EMBASE, and grey literature review, we identified studies that forecasted, predicted, or simulated ecological or epidemiological phenomena related to the Zika pandemic that were published as of March 01, 2017. Eligible studies underwent evaluation of objectives, data sources, methods, timeliness, reproducibility, accessibility, and clarity by independent reviewers. Results 2034 studies were identified, of which n = 73 met the eligibility criteria. Spatial spread, R0 (basic reproductive number), and epidemic dynamics were most commonly predicted, with few studies predicting Guillain-Barré Syndrome burden (4%), sexual transmission risk (4%), and intervention impact (4%). Most studies specifically examined populations in the Americas (52%), with few African-specific studies (4%). Case count (67%), vector (41%), and demographic data (37%) were the most common data sources. Real-time internet data and pathogen genomic information were used in 7% and 0% of studies, respectively, and social science and behavioral data were typically absent in modeling efforts. Deterministic models were favored over stochastic approaches. Forty percent of studies made model data entirely available, 29% provided all relevant model code, 43% presented uncertainty in all predictions, and 54% provided sufficient methodological detail to allow complete reproducibility. Fifty-one percent of predictions were published after the epidemic peak ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Pei-Ying Kobres Jean-Paul Chretien Michael A Johansson Jeffrey J Morgan Pai-Yei Whung Harshini Mukundan Sara Y Del Valle Brett M Forshey Talia M Quandelacy Matthew Biggerstaff Cecile Viboud Simon Pollett |
author_facet |
Pei-Ying Kobres Jean-Paul Chretien Michael A Johansson Jeffrey J Morgan Pai-Yei Whung Harshini Mukundan Sara Y Del Valle Brett M Forshey Talia M Quandelacy Matthew Biggerstaff Cecile Viboud Simon Pollett |
author_sort |
Pei-Ying Kobres |
title |
A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. |
title_short |
A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. |
title_full |
A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. |
title_fullStr |
A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. |
title_full_unstemmed |
A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. |
title_sort |
systematic review and evaluation of zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007451 https://doaj.org/article/1c08ee27b7d3461ba6b4f30cad580c98 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-68.550,-68.550,-67.500,-67.500) ENVELOPE(-58.767,-58.767,-69.200,-69.200) |
geographic |
Arctic Barré Prisma |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barré Prisma |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 13, Iss 10, p e0007451 (2019) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007451 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0007451 https://doaj.org/article/1c08ee27b7d3461ba6b4f30cad580c98 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0007451 |
container_title |
PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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13 |
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10 |
container_start_page |
e0007451 |
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1766346094334181376 |