Evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over China simulated by coupled and uncoupled models
The increase in the average surface air temperature anomaly (SATA) over China is higher than the global average. However, the accurate simulation and attribution of regional SATA evolution remain challenging for current global climate models. This study simulates historical SATA variations over Chin...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1bf5f360495a4651bbd188c412dfd88b 2023-05-15T18:18:07+02:00 Evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over China simulated by coupled and uncoupled models Ling Zuo Lijuan Li Bin Wang Tao Feng Youli Chang 2023-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.1061369 https://doaj.org/article/1bf5f360495a4651bbd188c412dfd88b EN eng Frontiers Media S.A. https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.1061369/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 2296-6463 doi:10.3389/feart.2022.1061369 https://doaj.org/article/1bf5f360495a4651bbd188c412dfd88b Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 10 (2023) surface air temperature attribution coupled model uncoupled model anthropogenic aerosols Science Q article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.1061369 2023-01-29T01:28:00Z The increase in the average surface air temperature anomaly (SATA) over China is higher than the global average. However, the accurate simulation and attribution of regional SATA evolution remain challenging for current global climate models. This study simulates historical SATA variations over China using the coupled (FGOALS-g3) and uncoupled (atmospheric component, GAMIL3) models and examines their possible causes. Results show that both models reproduce the historical SATA variation with higher correlation coefficients (0.735 and 0.782) than many global climate models (0.25–0.56), although they overestimate or underestimate the changes of SATA to some extent in different periods. The results show that the cooling trend during 1941–1970 is well simulated with the coupled model while poorly presented with the uncoupled model; the coupled simulations particularly produce stronger long-term trends than the uncoupled ones during 1870–2014 considering full interaction among the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. In contrast, the uncoupled simulations reproduce better decadal and multi-decadal SATA variations owing to the constraints of the observed sea surface temperature (SST), such as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, and sea ice cover. Using Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) experiments, we found that the warming in the early 20th century and the recent 50 years is mainly driven by natural forcings and greenhouse gases (GHGs), whereas the cooling during 1941–1970 is caused by natural factors and anthropogenic aerosols. The cooling effects of anthropogenic aerosols are mainly attributed from the indirect SST-mediated responses through the atmosphere-ocean interactions in the coupled model. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Frontiers in Earth Science 10 |
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surface air temperature attribution coupled model uncoupled model anthropogenic aerosols Science Q |
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surface air temperature attribution coupled model uncoupled model anthropogenic aerosols Science Q Ling Zuo Lijuan Li Bin Wang Tao Feng Youli Chang Evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over China simulated by coupled and uncoupled models |
topic_facet |
surface air temperature attribution coupled model uncoupled model anthropogenic aerosols Science Q |
description |
The increase in the average surface air temperature anomaly (SATA) over China is higher than the global average. However, the accurate simulation and attribution of regional SATA evolution remain challenging for current global climate models. This study simulates historical SATA variations over China using the coupled (FGOALS-g3) and uncoupled (atmospheric component, GAMIL3) models and examines their possible causes. Results show that both models reproduce the historical SATA variation with higher correlation coefficients (0.735 and 0.782) than many global climate models (0.25–0.56), although they overestimate or underestimate the changes of SATA to some extent in different periods. The results show that the cooling trend during 1941–1970 is well simulated with the coupled model while poorly presented with the uncoupled model; the coupled simulations particularly produce stronger long-term trends than the uncoupled ones during 1870–2014 considering full interaction among the atmosphere, ocean, and sea ice. In contrast, the uncoupled simulations reproduce better decadal and multi-decadal SATA variations owing to the constraints of the observed sea surface temperature (SST), such as the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation, and sea ice cover. Using Detection and Attribution Model Intercomparison Project (DAMIP) experiments, we found that the warming in the early 20th century and the recent 50 years is mainly driven by natural forcings and greenhouse gases (GHGs), whereas the cooling during 1941–1970 is caused by natural factors and anthropogenic aerosols. The cooling effects of anthropogenic aerosols are mainly attributed from the indirect SST-mediated responses through the atmosphere-ocean interactions in the coupled model. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Ling Zuo Lijuan Li Bin Wang Tao Feng Youli Chang |
author_facet |
Ling Zuo Lijuan Li Bin Wang Tao Feng Youli Chang |
author_sort |
Ling Zuo |
title |
Evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over China simulated by coupled and uncoupled models |
title_short |
Evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over China simulated by coupled and uncoupled models |
title_full |
Evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over China simulated by coupled and uncoupled models |
title_fullStr |
Evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over China simulated by coupled and uncoupled models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over China simulated by coupled and uncoupled models |
title_sort |
evaluation and attribution of historical surface air temperature changes over china simulated by coupled and uncoupled models |
publisher |
Frontiers Media S.A. |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.1061369 https://doaj.org/article/1bf5f360495a4651bbd188c412dfd88b |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
Frontiers in Earth Science, Vol 10 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/feart.2022.1061369/full https://doaj.org/toc/2296-6463 2296-6463 doi:10.3389/feart.2022.1061369 https://doaj.org/article/1bf5f360495a4651bbd188c412dfd88b |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.3389/feart.2022.1061369 |
container_title |
Frontiers in Earth Science |
container_volume |
10 |
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1766194542562770944 |