Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways
The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately (‘G’, +1.5 K in 2085) or m...
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 https://doaj.org/article/1beb38e16d334b63bbaa9b765b5e8cc1 |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1beb38e16d334b63bbaa9b765b5e8cc1 2023-09-05T13:20:18+02:00 Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways Hylke de Vries Caroline Katsman Sybren Drijfhout 2014-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 https://doaj.org/article/1beb38e16d334b63bbaa9b765b5e8cc1 EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/1beb38e16d334b63bbaa9b765b5e8cc1 Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Iss 11, p 115007 (2014) regional sea level projections temperature pathways North Sea area Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 2023-08-13T00:37:28Z The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately (‘G’, +1.5 K in 2085) or more substantially (‘W’, +3.5 K in 2085). Contributions from all major processes leading to sea level rise are included (ocean expansion, glacier melt, ice-sheet changes, and landwater changes), except glacial isostatic adjustment and surface elevation changes. As input we use data from 42 coupled global climate models that contributed to CMIP5. The approach is consistent with the recent fifth assessment Report of IPCC, but provides an alternative viewpoint based on global temperature changes rather than RCPs. This makes them rather accessible and readily applicable to policy makers and the general public. We find a likely range for the G-scenario of +25–60 cm in 2085, and +45–80 cm for the W-scenario. These numbers have been rounded to 5 cm precision, to emphasise to any end-user of these scenarios that estimated lower and upper limits themselves are uncertain. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice Sheet Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Environmental Research Letters 9 11 115007 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
regional sea level projections temperature pathways North Sea area Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
regional sea level projections temperature pathways North Sea area Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 Hylke de Vries Caroline Katsman Sybren Drijfhout Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
topic_facet |
regional sea level projections temperature pathways North Sea area Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The effects of sea level change become increasingly relevant for the Dutch coast. Therefore we construct two scenarios for regional sea-level change in the 21st century. They are designed to follow two temperature pathways, in which global mean temperature rises moderately (‘G’, +1.5 K in 2085) or more substantially (‘W’, +3.5 K in 2085). Contributions from all major processes leading to sea level rise are included (ocean expansion, glacier melt, ice-sheet changes, and landwater changes), except glacial isostatic adjustment and surface elevation changes. As input we use data from 42 coupled global climate models that contributed to CMIP5. The approach is consistent with the recent fifth assessment Report of IPCC, but provides an alternative viewpoint based on global temperature changes rather than RCPs. This makes them rather accessible and readily applicable to policy makers and the general public. We find a likely range for the G-scenario of +25–60 cm in 2085, and +45–80 cm for the W-scenario. These numbers have been rounded to 5 cm precision, to emphasise to any end-user of these scenarios that estimated lower and upper limits themselves are uncertain. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hylke de Vries Caroline Katsman Sybren Drijfhout |
author_facet |
Hylke de Vries Caroline Katsman Sybren Drijfhout |
author_sort |
Hylke de Vries |
title |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_short |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_full |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_fullStr |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_full_unstemmed |
Constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
title_sort |
constructing scenarios of regional sea level change using global temperature pathways |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 https://doaj.org/article/1beb38e16d334b63bbaa9b765b5e8cc1 |
genre |
Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Ice Sheet |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 9, Iss 11, p 115007 (2014) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/1beb38e16d334b63bbaa9b765b5e8cc1 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/115007 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
11 |
container_start_page |
115007 |
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1776200997335465984 |