Estimating the economic impact of interpersonal violence in Mexico in 2021: projecting three hypothetical scenarios for 2030

• Published in: Revista Panamericana de Salud Pública
• Main Authors: Arturo Cervantes, Rashi Jhunjhunwala, Isaac Deneb Castañeda Alcántara, María Eugenia Elizundia Cisneros, Roey Ringel, Alejandra Cortes Rodriguez, Diana del Valle, Sarah Hill, John Gerard Meara, Tarsicio Uribe-Leitz
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English; Spanish; Portuguese
• Published: Pan American Health Organization 2023
• Subjects: violence; gun violence; health economic; mexico; Medicine; R; Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine; RC955-962; Public aspects of medicine; RA1-1270; Arctic
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.26633/RPSP.2023.39; https://doaj.org/article/1b2dfa029a25483e8bc9efe990b44a52

Objective. To calculate the economic impact of violence across Mexico in 2021 and project costs for 2021–2030. Methods. Incidence data was obtained from the Executive Secretariat of the National Public Security System, (SESNSP), National Population Council (CONAPO), National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI), and the National Survey of Victimization and Perception of Public Safety (ENVIPE). Our model incorporates incidence estimates of the costs of events associated with violence (e.g., homicides, hospitalizations, rapes, extortions, robbery, etc). Results. The economic impact of crime and violence in Mexico for the year 2021 has been estimated at about $192 billion US dollars, which corresponds to 14.6% of the national GDP. By reducing violence 50% by 2030, we estimate savings of at least US$110 billion dollars. This represents a saving of US$1 376 372 for each company and more than US$66 771 for each Mexican. Conclusion. Violence and homicides have become one of the most pressing public health and economic concerns for their effect on health, development, and economic growth. Due to low cost and high impact, prevention is the most efficient way to respond to crime and violence while also being an essential component of sustainable strategies aimed at improving citizen security