Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios.
Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempt...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1ad2b2af82e94e0b87af2ab5ad285c46 2023-05-15T15:13:36+02:00 Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios. Miroslava Garza Teresa Patricia Feria Arroyo Edgar A Casillas Victor Sanchez-Cordero Chissa-Louise Rivaldi Sahotra Sarkar 2014-05-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002818 https://doaj.org/article/1ad2b2af82e94e0b87af2ab5ad285c46 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4022587?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002818 https://doaj.org/article/1ad2b2af82e94e0b87af2ab5ad285c46 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 5, p e2818 (2014) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2014 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002818 2022-12-30T21:58:07Z Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 8 5 e2818 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
spellingShingle |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Miroslava Garza Teresa Patricia Feria Arroyo Edgar A Casillas Victor Sanchez-Cordero Chissa-Louise Rivaldi Sahotra Sarkar Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Chagas disease kills approximately 45 thousand people annually and affects 10 million people in Latin America and the southern United States. The parasite that causes the disease, Trypanosoma cruzi, can be transmitted by insects of the family Reduviidae, subfamily Triatominae. Any study that attempts to evaluate risk for Chagas disease must focus on the ecology and biogeography of these vectors. Expected distributional shifts of vector species due to climate change are likely to alter spatial patterns of risk of Chagas disease, presumably through northward expansion of high risk areas in North America.We forecast the future (2050) distributions in North America of Triatoma gerstaeckeri and T. sanguisuga, two of the most common triatomine species and important vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in the southern United States. Our aim was to analyze how climate change might affect the future shift of Chagas disease in North America using a maximum entropy algorithm to predict changes in suitable habitat based on vector occurrence points and predictive environmental variables. Projections based on three different general circulation models (CCCMA, CSIRO, and HADCM3) and two IPCC scenarios (A2 and B2) were analyzed. Twenty models were developed for each case and evaluated via cross-validation. The final model averages result from all twenty of these models. All models had AUC >0.90, which indicates that the models are robust. Our results predict a potential northern shift in the distribution of T. gerstaeckeri and a northern and southern distributional shift of T. sanguisuga from its current range due to climate change.The results of this study provide baseline information for monitoring the northward shift of potential risk from Chagas disease in the face of climate change. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Miroslava Garza Teresa Patricia Feria Arroyo Edgar A Casillas Victor Sanchez-Cordero Chissa-Louise Rivaldi Sahotra Sarkar |
author_facet |
Miroslava Garza Teresa Patricia Feria Arroyo Edgar A Casillas Victor Sanchez-Cordero Chissa-Louise Rivaldi Sahotra Sarkar |
author_sort |
Miroslava Garza |
title |
Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios. |
title_short |
Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios. |
title_full |
Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios. |
title_fullStr |
Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected future distributions of vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi in North America under climate change scenarios. |
title_sort |
projected future distributions of vectors of trypanosoma cruzi in north america under climate change scenarios. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002818 https://doaj.org/article/1ad2b2af82e94e0b87af2ab5ad285c46 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 8, Iss 5, p e2818 (2014) |
op_relation |
http://europepmc.org/articles/PMC4022587?pdf=render https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0002818 https://doaj.org/article/1ad2b2af82e94e0b87af2ab5ad285c46 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0002818 |
container_title |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
e2818 |
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1766344127953240064 |