Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua.
Dengue vector entomological indices are widely used to monitor vector density and disease control activities. But the value of these indices as predictors of dengue infection is not established. We used data from the impact assessment of a trial of community mobilization for dengue prevention (Camin...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1a70c1ebc76b4346a0112c2ec3df94a3 2023-05-15T15:16:43+02:00 Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua. Arcadio Morales-Pérez Elizabeth Nava-Aguilera Carlos Hernández-Alvarez Víctor Manuel Alvarado-Castro Jorge Arosteguí José Legorreta-Soberanis Miguel Flores-Moreno Liliana Morales-Nava Eva Harris Robert J Ledogar Neil Andersson Anne Cockcroft 2020-10-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008768 https://doaj.org/article/1a70c1ebc76b4346a0112c2ec3df94a3 EN eng Public Library of Science (PLoS) https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008768 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008768 https://doaj.org/article/1a70c1ebc76b4346a0112c2ec3df94a3 PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 10, p e0008768 (2020) Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 article 2020 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008768 2022-12-31T05:03:46Z Dengue vector entomological indices are widely used to monitor vector density and disease control activities. But the value of these indices as predictors of dengue infection is not established. We used data from the impact assessment of a trial of community mobilization for dengue prevention (Camino Verde) to examine the associations between vector indices and evidence of dengue infection and their value for predicting dengue infection levels. In 150 clusters in Mexico and Nicaragua, two entomological surveys, three months apart, allowed calculation of the mean Container Index, Breteau index, Pupae per Household Index, and Pupae per Container Index across the two surveys. We measured recent dengue virus infection in children, indicated by a doubling of dengue antibodies in paired saliva samples over the three-month period. We examined the associations between each of the vector indices and evidence of dengue infection at household level and at cluster level, accounting for trial intervention status. To examine the predictive value for dengue infection, we constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at household and cluster level, considering the four vector indices as continuous variables, and calculated the positive and negative likelihood ratios for different levels of the indices. None of the vector indices was associated with recent dengue infection at household level. The Breteau Index was associated with recent infection at cluster level (Odds ratio 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.14-1.61). The ROC curve confirmed the weak predictive value for dengue infection of the Breteau Index at cluster level. Other indices showed no predictive value. Conventional vector indices were not useful in predicting dengue infection in Mexico and Nicaragua. The findings are compatible with the idea of sources of infection outside the household which were tackled by community action in the Camino Verde trial. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases 14 10 e0008768 |
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English |
topic |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
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Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 Arcadio Morales-Pérez Elizabeth Nava-Aguilera Carlos Hernández-Alvarez Víctor Manuel Alvarado-Castro Jorge Arosteguí José Legorreta-Soberanis Miguel Flores-Moreno Liliana Morales-Nava Eva Harris Robert J Ledogar Neil Andersson Anne Cockcroft Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua. |
topic_facet |
Arctic medicine. Tropical medicine RC955-962 Public aspects of medicine RA1-1270 |
description |
Dengue vector entomological indices are widely used to monitor vector density and disease control activities. But the value of these indices as predictors of dengue infection is not established. We used data from the impact assessment of a trial of community mobilization for dengue prevention (Camino Verde) to examine the associations between vector indices and evidence of dengue infection and their value for predicting dengue infection levels. In 150 clusters in Mexico and Nicaragua, two entomological surveys, three months apart, allowed calculation of the mean Container Index, Breteau index, Pupae per Household Index, and Pupae per Container Index across the two surveys. We measured recent dengue virus infection in children, indicated by a doubling of dengue antibodies in paired saliva samples over the three-month period. We examined the associations between each of the vector indices and evidence of dengue infection at household level and at cluster level, accounting for trial intervention status. To examine the predictive value for dengue infection, we constructed receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves at household and cluster level, considering the four vector indices as continuous variables, and calculated the positive and negative likelihood ratios for different levels of the indices. None of the vector indices was associated with recent dengue infection at household level. The Breteau Index was associated with recent infection at cluster level (Odds ratio 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.14-1.61). The ROC curve confirmed the weak predictive value for dengue infection of the Breteau Index at cluster level. Other indices showed no predictive value. Conventional vector indices were not useful in predicting dengue infection in Mexico and Nicaragua. The findings are compatible with the idea of sources of infection outside the household which were tackled by community action in the Camino Verde trial. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Arcadio Morales-Pérez Elizabeth Nava-Aguilera Carlos Hernández-Alvarez Víctor Manuel Alvarado-Castro Jorge Arosteguí José Legorreta-Soberanis Miguel Flores-Moreno Liliana Morales-Nava Eva Harris Robert J Ledogar Neil Andersson Anne Cockcroft |
author_facet |
Arcadio Morales-Pérez Elizabeth Nava-Aguilera Carlos Hernández-Alvarez Víctor Manuel Alvarado-Castro Jorge Arosteguí José Legorreta-Soberanis Miguel Flores-Moreno Liliana Morales-Nava Eva Harris Robert J Ledogar Neil Andersson Anne Cockcroft |
author_sort |
Arcadio Morales-Pérez |
title |
Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua. |
title_short |
Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua. |
title_full |
Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua. |
title_fullStr |
Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua. |
title_full_unstemmed |
Utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the Camino Verde trial in Mexico and Nicaragua. |
title_sort |
utility of entomological indices for predicting transmission of dengue virus: secondary analysis of data from the camino verde trial in mexico and nicaragua. |
publisher |
Public Library of Science (PLoS) |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008768 https://doaj.org/article/1a70c1ebc76b4346a0112c2ec3df94a3 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic |
genre_facet |
Arctic |
op_source |
PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Vol 14, Iss 10, p e0008768 (2020) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008768 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2727 https://doaj.org/toc/1935-2735 1935-2727 1935-2735 doi:10.1371/journal.pntd.0008768 https://doaj.org/article/1a70c1ebc76b4346a0112c2ec3df94a3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0008768 |
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PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases |
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14 |
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10 |
container_start_page |
e0008768 |
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