Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions
The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of ‘perfect model’ experiments to assess the...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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2017
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Online Access: | https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 https://doaj.org/article/1a6572c6a0d1405594aa1c9a2b4d10ca |
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:1a6572c6a0d1405594aa1c9a2b4d10ca 2023-09-05T13:16:13+02:00 Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions N Melia K Haines E Hawkins J J Day 2017-01-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 https://doaj.org/article/1a6572c6a0d1405594aa1c9a2b4d10ca EN eng IOP Publishing https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/1a6572c6a0d1405594aa1c9a2b4d10ca Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 8, p 084005 (2017) seasonal forecasts climate prediction Arctic shipping Arctic sea-ice climate change impacts Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 article 2017 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 2023-08-13T00:37:34Z The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of ‘perfect model’ experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May ‘predictability barrier’. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change Sea ice Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Arctic Environmental Research Letters 12 8 084005 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles |
op_collection_id |
ftdoajarticles |
language |
English |
topic |
seasonal forecasts climate prediction Arctic shipping Arctic sea-ice climate change impacts Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
spellingShingle |
seasonal forecasts climate prediction Arctic shipping Arctic sea-ice climate change impacts Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 N Melia K Haines E Hawkins J J Day Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions |
topic_facet |
seasonal forecasts climate prediction Arctic shipping Arctic sea-ice climate change impacts Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering TD1-1066 Environmental sciences GE1-350 Science Q Physics QC1-999 |
description |
The continuing decline in Arctic sea-ice will likely lead to increased human activity and opportunities for shipping in the region, suggesting that seasonal predictions of route openings will become ever more important. Here we present results from a set of ‘perfect model’ experiments to assess the predictability characteristics of the opening of Arctic sea routes. We find skilful predictions of the upcoming summer shipping season can be made from as early as January, although typically forecasts show lower skill before a May ‘predictability barrier’. We demonstrate that in forecasts started from January, predictions of route opening date are twice as uncertain as predicting the closing date and that the Arctic shipping season is becoming longer due to climate change, with later closing dates mostly responsible. We find that predictive skill is state dependent with predictions for high or low ice years exhibiting greater skill than medium ice years. Forecasting the fastest open water route through the Arctic is accurate to within 200 km when predicted from July, a six-fold increase in accuracy compared to forecasts initialised from the previous November, which are typically no better than climatology. Finally we find that initialisation of accurate summer sea-ice thickness information is crucial to obtain skilful forecasts, further motivating investment into sea-ice thickness observations, climate models, and assimilation systems. |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
N Melia K Haines E Hawkins J J Day |
author_facet |
N Melia K Haines E Hawkins J J Day |
author_sort |
N Melia |
title |
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions |
title_short |
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions |
title_full |
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions |
title_fullStr |
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Towards seasonal Arctic shipping route predictions |
title_sort |
towards seasonal arctic shipping route predictions |
publisher |
IOP Publishing |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 https://doaj.org/article/1a6572c6a0d1405594aa1c9a2b4d10ca |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change Sea ice |
op_source |
Environmental Research Letters, Vol 12, Iss 8, p 084005 (2017) |
op_relation |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 https://doaj.org/toc/1748-9326 doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 1748-9326 https://doaj.org/article/1a6572c6a0d1405594aa1c9a2b4d10ca |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa7a60 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
084005 |
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1776197891084255232 |