Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations
The Mediterranean region is expected to experience significant changes in hydroclimate, reflected in increases in the duration and severity of soil moisture droughts. While numerous studies have explored Mediterranean droughts in coupled climate models under present and future scenarios, understandi...
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ftdoajarticles:oai:doaj.org/article:19bd07313ab44f1c892ac74b08a537d2 2024-01-14T10:09:09+01:00 Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations W. M. Kim S. J. González-Rojí C. C. Raible 2023-12-01T00:00:00Z https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023 https://doaj.org/article/19bd07313ab44f1c892ac74b08a537d2 EN eng Copernicus Publications https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/2511/2023/cp-19-2511-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/19bd07313ab44f1c892ac74b08a537d2 Climate of the Past, Vol 19, Pp 2511-2533 (2023) Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 article 2023 ftdoajarticles https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023 2023-12-17T01:44:28Z The Mediterranean region is expected to experience significant changes in hydroclimate, reflected in increases in the duration and severity of soil moisture droughts. While numerous studies have explored Mediterranean droughts in coupled climate models under present and future scenarios, understanding droughts in past-climate simulations remains relatively underexplored. Such simulations can offer insights into long-term drought variability that observational records cannot capture. Therefore, our study investigates circulation patterns in the Euro-Atlantic domain associated with multi-year soil moisture droughts over the Mediterranean region during the last millennium (850–2005 CE) in climate simulations. For this, we use the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project–Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP5–PMIP3) and the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble Project. Primarily, we examine the differences among the models in representing drought variability and related circulation patterns. For the analysis, we exclude the anthropogenic trends from 1850–2005 CE, and to detect the circulation patterns, we perform k -means clustering combined with linear correlation analyses. The findings confirm that Mediterranean drought occurrence during the last millennium is associated with internal variability in the climate system. Drought variability, the associated circulation patterns, and the frequencies of these patterns vary across the models. Some climate models exhibit a multidecadal anti-phase occurrence of some drought periods between the western and eastern Mediterranean regions, although the exact periods of coherence differ among the models. This anti-phase co-variability, which agrees with some proxy records, can be explained by the dominant circulation patterns in each region detected by the models: western Mediterranean droughts are dominated by a high-pressure system over central Europe and a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern, while eastern Mediterranean droughts are ... Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Directory of Open Access Journals: DOAJ Articles Climate of the Past 19 12 2511 2533 |
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topic |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
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Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 W. M. Kim S. J. González-Rojí C. C. Raible Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations |
topic_facet |
Environmental pollution TD172-193.5 Environmental protection TD169-171.8 Environmental sciences GE1-350 |
description |
The Mediterranean region is expected to experience significant changes in hydroclimate, reflected in increases in the duration and severity of soil moisture droughts. While numerous studies have explored Mediterranean droughts in coupled climate models under present and future scenarios, understanding droughts in past-climate simulations remains relatively underexplored. Such simulations can offer insights into long-term drought variability that observational records cannot capture. Therefore, our study investigates circulation patterns in the Euro-Atlantic domain associated with multi-year soil moisture droughts over the Mediterranean region during the last millennium (850–2005 CE) in climate simulations. For this, we use the fifth phase of the Climate Model Intercomparison Project–Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (CMIP5–PMIP3) and the CESM Last Millennium Ensemble Project. Primarily, we examine the differences among the models in representing drought variability and related circulation patterns. For the analysis, we exclude the anthropogenic trends from 1850–2005 CE, and to detect the circulation patterns, we perform k -means clustering combined with linear correlation analyses. The findings confirm that Mediterranean drought occurrence during the last millennium is associated with internal variability in the climate system. Drought variability, the associated circulation patterns, and the frequencies of these patterns vary across the models. Some climate models exhibit a multidecadal anti-phase occurrence of some drought periods between the western and eastern Mediterranean regions, although the exact periods of coherence differ among the models. This anti-phase co-variability, which agrees with some proxy records, can be explained by the dominant circulation patterns in each region detected by the models: western Mediterranean droughts are dominated by a high-pressure system over central Europe and a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like pattern, while eastern Mediterranean droughts are ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
W. M. Kim S. J. González-Rojí C. C. Raible |
author_facet |
W. M. Kim S. J. González-Rojí C. C. Raible |
author_sort |
W. M. Kim |
title |
Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations |
title_short |
Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations |
title_full |
Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations |
title_fullStr |
Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations |
title_full_unstemmed |
Extratropical circulation associated with Mediterranean droughts during the Last Millennium in CMIP5 simulations |
title_sort |
extratropical circulation associated with mediterranean droughts during the last millennium in cmip5 simulations |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2023 |
url |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023 https://doaj.org/article/19bd07313ab44f1c892ac74b08a537d2 |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol 19, Pp 2511-2533 (2023) |
op_relation |
https://cp.copernicus.org/articles/19/2511/2023/cp-19-2511-2023.pdf https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9324 https://doaj.org/toc/1814-9332 doi:10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023 1814-9324 1814-9332 https://doaj.org/article/19bd07313ab44f1c892ac74b08a537d2 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-19-2511-2023 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
19 |
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12 |
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2511 |
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2533 |
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1788063627008278528 |