Development of the Gas Market of the Eastern Regions of Russia

• Published in: Spatial Economics
• Main Authors: Anatoly Vladimirovich Lagerev, Valentina Nikolaevna Khanaeva
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: Russian
• Published: Economic Research Institute of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences 2019
• Subjects: natural gas; LNG; Eastern regions; long-term forecast; scenarios; production; consumption; export; markets; prices; efficiency; North-East Asia; Economics as a science; HB71-74; Sakhalin; Siberia
• Online Access: https://doi.org/10.14530/se.2019.3.046-058; https://doaj.org/article/193e445662124704a714068123fce994

The article presents the dynamics of the gas market development for two scenarios of the economy of the Eastern regions of Russia (Eastern Siberia, Far East). We have determined rational volume of natural gas required to meet the domestic demand of the Eastern regions for gas and the volume of its exports to the NEA countries. Based on the economic estimation of efficiency of different options of export (pipeline gas, LNG), we give the prognosis of the dynamics and structure of gas export from the Eastern regions of the country. Based on the calculations using the dynamic optimization model of the country’s fuel and energy industry the following conclusions can be made for the Eastern regions of Russia till 2035: the volume of gas consumption may increase 2.1–2.3 times up to 31–35 billion m3; the export of natural gas may increase to 70–71 billion m3 at projected ‘global’ prices; the gas extraction volume may constitute 107–113 billion m3 annually. Additionally, estimating the efficiency reserve of the Russian gas export allowed prioritizing, among new export projects in the East of Russia, LNG plants (Sakhalin-LNG-2, Far Eastern LNG) and the pipeline ‘Power of Siberia’, which would allow exporting 38 billion m3 of gas to China through the pipeline and 32–33 billion m3 of LNG to the markets of the NEA countries